2240 #38 Golden Oak Ln #38 · Merced, CA 95341

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 128 Days on market

Built 1973 $43/sqft · 30% below area Est $70k · 30% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home with 1152 sq. ft. located in a great Senior Park. You must be 55+ years. Rare unit with a large backyard. The home needs some TLC so if you are looking for something to create some sweat equity, you have found your unit. Includes a large shed, enclosed porch. Park amenities include a club house that includes a kitchen, pool, spa, sauna, fitness studio and pool table.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Enclosed porch
• Club house

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• LARGE SHED
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• CLUB HOUSE
• FITNESS STUDIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $894 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.2% vs local median 3.4% in Merced — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#153 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.86%
• DSCR: 4.95
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,000
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -30.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2240 Golden Oak Ln #147	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,230 (+7%)	3mo	$90,900	$74	78
2240 Golden Oak #94	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	2mo	$25,000	$20	74
2240 Golden Oak #155	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	16mo	$95,000	$79	69
2240 Golden Oak Ln #83	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,285 (+12%)	3mo	$106,900	$83	67
2240 Golden Oak Ln #85	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	13mo	$95,000	$73	63
2499 E Gerard Ave #50	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	3mo	$75,000	$63	60
2499 E Gerard #132	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,148 (-0%)	5mo	$38,000	$33	51
1735 Santa Fe Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	12mo	$360,000	$288	40
2499 E Gerard Ave #139	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	12mo	$130,000	$104	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $46,878
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.71×
• Total profit: $105,733
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95341

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $158/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $894

Break-even live

Break-even rent $523

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1976 Edwards Ave Unit 1 Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,125	$1.32	13d	1	0.35mi
2157 Yosemite Pkwy Unit 32 Merced, CA	2.0	1.5	864	$1,400	$1.62	13d	1	0.35mi
1560 Ellen Ct Apt 4 Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	13d	1	0.40mi
1532 Ellen Ct Unit 1532 Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,200	$1.43	13d	1	0.41mi
Ellen Ct Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,095	$1.30	3d	1	0.42mi
1557 Ellen Ct Unit 1557 Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,200	$1.59	13d	1	0.44mi
2210 Birchwood Ct Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,150	$1.56	13d	1	0.54mi
1880 Barnett Way Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,975	$1.54	13d	1	0.71mi
2632 Story Ave Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,150	$1.67	13d	1	0.75mi
341 Brad Ct Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,275	$1.61	13d	1	1.06mi
2560 Midge Ave Merced, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	708	$1,150	$1.62	7d	8	1.06mi
2685 Agnes Way Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,845	$1.63	13d	1	1.17mi
2597 Glen Ave Unit 2591glen Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	13d	1	1.19mi
2618 Hoover Ct Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,200	$1.80	13d	1	1.22mi
2340 Circle Dr Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,900	$1.52	13d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $49,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home with 1152 sq. ft. located in a great Senior Park. You must be 55+ years. Rare unit with a large backyard. The home needs some TLC so if you are looking for something to create some sweat equity, you have found your unit. Includes a large shed, enclosed porch. Park amenities include a club house that includes a kitchen, pool, spa, sauna, fitness studio and pool table.

18. 2026-05-11
    price $49,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home with 1152 sq. ft. located in a great Senior Park. You must be 55+ years. Rare unit with a large backyard. The home needs some TLC so if you are looking for something to create some sweat equity, you have found your unit. Includes a large shed, enclosed porch. Park amenities include a club house that includes a kitchen, pool, spa, sauna, fitness studio and pool table.

19. 2026-03-19
    price $59,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home with 1152 sq. ft. located in a great Senior Park. You must be 55+ years. Rare unit with a large backyard. The home needs some TLC so if you are looking for something to create some sweat equity, you have found your unit. Includes a large shed, enclosed porch. Park amenities include a club house that includes a kitchen, pool, spa, sauna, fitness studio and pool table.

20. 2026-03-19
    price $59,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home with 1152 sq. ft. located in a great Senior Park. You must be 55+ years. Rare unit with a large backyard. The home needs some TLC so if you are looking for something to create some sweat equity, you have found your unit. Includes a large shed, enclosed porch. Park amenities include a club house that includes a kitchen, pool, spa, sauna, fitness studio and pool table.

21. 2026-02-10
    listed $68,999 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home with 1152 sq. ft. located in a great Senior Park. You must be 55+ years. Rare unit with a large backyard. The home needs some TLC so if you are looking for something to create some sweat equity, you have found your unit. Includes a large shed, enclosed porch. Park amenities include a club house that includes a kitchen, pool, spa, sauna, fitness studio and pool table.

22. 2026-02-10
    listed $68,999 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home with 1152 sq. ft. located in a great Senior Park. You must be 55+ years. Rare unit with a large backyard. The home needs some TLC so if you are looking for something to create some sweat equity, you have found your unit. Includes a large shed, enclosed porch. Park amenities include a club house that includes a kitchen, pool, spa, sauna, fitness studio and pool table.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $158 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $372 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$214/yr (+$18/mo · 135.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$158
• − Insurance: −$1,712
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $10,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,551
• After-tax cash flow: $8,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Merced

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #5111

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merced, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 112,228
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,385
• Household income: $57,342
• Rent vs Own: 61.5% rent · 38.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% White 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 55% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.65%
• Current HPI: 314.4223
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-29.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $49,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $49,000 MLSListings
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $59,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $59,000 MLSListings
• 2026-02-10 Listed $68,999 MLSListings
• 2026-02-10 Listed $68,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2020): $158 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.