17 Seminole Ln · East Columbia, TX 77486

$319,800

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 311 Days on market

Built 1978 0.27 ac lot $157/sqft · at area comps Est $317k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This charming 4-bedroom / 2 1/2-bath home is designed for comfort and entertaining. As you enter, you're greeted by a lovely foyer that sets the tone for the rest of the house. The formal living room is captivating, featuring a cozy fireplace and built-in shelves-perfect for showcasing your favorite decor or books. The elegant formal dining room is ideal for hosting dinner parties, while the inviting breakfast area offers a more casual space for morning meals. For those who love to entertain, the convenient wet bar with bar seating is a fantastic addition that will surely impress your guests. Situated on a cul de sac in the sought after Columbia Lakes community, don't miss the chance to make this wonderful space you own! Adjacent lot Available!

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Cul de sac
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• BUILT-IN SHELVES
• WET BAR
• BAR SEATING
• CUL DE SAC
• COLUMBIA LAKES COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 311 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,000 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 311 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,573
• List price: $319,800
• Delta: 1.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2163 Twin Lakes Blvd	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (+1%)	9mo	$329,000	$160	69
5 Seminole Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-12%)	10mo	$335,900	$187	63
2224 Riveroaks Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,992 (-2%)	8mo	$330,000	$166	62
214 Montclaire Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,968 (-3%)	1mo	$365,990	$186	60
2254 Lake Forrest Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,081 (+2%)	9mo	$249,900	$120	58
212 Forest Park Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,878 (-8%)	3mo	$299,990	$160	53
230 Edgewater Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,902 (-6%)	4mo	$309,999	$163	53
14 Augusta Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,954 (-4%)	9mo	$429,000	$220	50
2234 Lake Forrest Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-12%)	6mo	$324,900	$180	48
2236 River Oaks Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,203 (+8%)	8mo	$150,000	$68	47
2280 Riveroaks Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (-7%)	2mo	$399,999	$212	46
253 Twin Lakes Blvd W	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,863 (-8%)	10mo	$304,900	$164	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $107,660
• Equity at exit: $234,933

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $324,978
• Equity at exit: $458,886

Cash invested: $89,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77486

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,677
• Tax from tax record: −$468 /mo · $5,619/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,032

Max offer price $273,513

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-81	-5% $-172	+0% $-262	+5% $-353	+10% $-443
Rent	-10% $-475	-5% $-369	+0% $-262	+5% $-155	+10% $-49
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-181	base $-262	+0.5pp $-345	+1.0pp $-429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,950
• Closing costs: $9,594
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2363 Ridgewood Dr West Columbia, TX	4.0	2.5	2555	$2,700	$1.06	25d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,800 Active 311 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,800 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,800 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,800 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,800 Active 305 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,800 Active 303 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,800 Active 302 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,800 Active 299 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,800 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,800 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,800 Active 294 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,800 Active 293 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,800 Active 292 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,800 Active 291 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,800 Active 290 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    status Active 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 4-bedroom / 2 1/2-bath home is designed for comfort and entertaining. As you enter, you're greeted by a lovely foyer that sets the tone for the rest of the house. The formal living room is captivating, featuring a cozy fireplace and built-in shelves-perfect for showcasing your favorite decor or books. The elegant formal dining room is ideal for hosting dinner parties, while the inviting breakfast area offers a more casual space for morning meals. For those who love to entertain, the convenient wet bar with bar seating is a fantastic addition that will surely impress your guests. Situated on a cul de sac in the sought after Columbia Lakes community, don't miss the chance to make this wonderful space you own! Adjacent lot Available!

17. 2026-05-12
    historical 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 4-bedroom / 2 1/2-bath home is designed for comfort and entertaining. As you enter, you're greeted by a lovely foyer that sets the tone for the rest of the house. The formal living room is captivating, featuring a cozy fireplace and built-in shelves-perfect for showcasing your favorite decor or books. The elegant formal dining room is ideal for hosting dinner parties, while the inviting breakfast area offers a more casual space for morning meals. For those who love to entertain, the convenient wet bar with bar seating is a fantastic addition that will surely impress your guests. Situated on a cul de sac in the sought after Columbia Lakes community, don't miss the chance to make this wonderful space you own! Adjacent lot Available!

18. 2026-02-17
    price $269,900 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 4-bedroom / 2 1/2-bath home is designed for comfort and entertaining. As you enter, you're greeted by a lovely foyer that sets the tone for the rest of the house. The formal living room is captivating, featuring a cozy fireplace and built-in shelves-perfect for showcasing your favorite decor or books. The elegant formal dining room is ideal for hosting dinner parties, while the inviting breakfast area offers a more casual space for morning meals. For those who love to entertain, the convenient wet bar with bar seating is a fantastic addition that will surely impress your guests. Situated on a cul de sac in the sought after Columbia Lakes community, don't miss the chance to make this wonderful space you own! Adjacent lot Available!

19. 2026-01-23
    price $285,000 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 4-bedroom / 2 1/2-bath home is designed for comfort and entertaining. As you enter, you're greeted by a lovely foyer that sets the tone for the rest of the house. The formal living room is captivating, featuring a cozy fireplace and built-in shelves-perfect for showcasing your favorite decor or books. The elegant formal dining room is ideal for hosting dinner parties, while the inviting breakfast area offers a more casual space for morning meals. For those who love to entertain, the convenient wet bar with bar seating is a fantastic addition that will surely impress your guests. Situated on a cul de sac in the sought after Columbia Lakes community, don't miss the chance to make this wonderful space you own! Adjacent lot Available!

20. 2025-12-18
    price $289,900 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 4-bedroom / 2 1/2-bath home is designed for comfort and entertaining. As you enter, you're greeted by a lovely foyer that sets the tone for the rest of the house. The formal living room is captivating, featuring a cozy fireplace and built-in shelves-perfect for showcasing your favorite decor or books. The elegant formal dining room is ideal for hosting dinner parties, while the inviting breakfast area offers a more casual space for morning meals. For those who love to entertain, the convenient wet bar with bar seating is a fantastic addition that will surely impress your guests. Situated on a cul de sac in the sought after Columbia Lakes community, don't miss the chance to make this wonderful space you own! Adjacent lot Available!

21. 2025-10-27
    status Active 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 4-bedroom / 2 1/2-bath home is designed for comfort and entertaining. As you enter, you're greeted by a lovely foyer that sets the tone for the rest of the house. The formal living room is captivating, featuring a cozy fireplace and built-in shelves-perfect for showcasing your favorite decor or books. The elegant formal dining room is ideal for hosting dinner parties, while the inviting breakfast area offers a more casual space for morning meals. For those who love to entertain, the convenient wet bar with bar seating is a fantastic addition that will surely impress your guests. Situated on a cul de sac in the sought after Columbia Lakes community, don't miss the chance to make this wonderful space you own! Adjacent lot Available!

22. 2025-10-23
    status Pending 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 4-bedroom / 2 1/2-bath home is designed for comfort and entertaining. As you enter, you're greeted by a lovely foyer that sets the tone for the rest of the house. The formal living room is captivating, featuring a cozy fireplace and built-in shelves-perfect for showcasing your favorite decor or books. The elegant formal dining room is ideal for hosting dinner parties, while the inviting breakfast area offers a more casual space for morning meals. For those who love to entertain, the convenient wet bar with bar seating is a fantastic addition that will surely impress your guests. Situated on a cul de sac in the sought after Columbia Lakes community, don't miss the chance to make this wonderful space you own! Adjacent lot Available!

23. 2025-08-12
    listed $299,900 Active 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 4-bedroom / 2 1/2-bath home is designed for comfort and entertaining. As you enter, you're greeted by a lovely foyer that sets the tone for the rest of the house. The formal living room is captivating, featuring a cozy fireplace and built-in shelves-perfect for showcasing your favorite decor or books. The elegant formal dining room is ideal for hosting dinner parties, while the inviting breakfast area offers a more casual space for morning meals. For those who love to entertain, the convenient wet bar with bar seating is a fantastic addition that will surely impress your guests. Situated on a cul de sac in the sought after Columbia Lakes community, don't miss the chance to make this wonderful space you own! Adjacent lot Available!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,619 · $468/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,852 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: +$233/yr (+$19/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,914
• − Property taxes: −$5,619
• − Insurance: −$2,396
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,303
• Taxable loss: −$8,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,068
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Columbia

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,330

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.63%
• Current HPI: 320.7967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $299,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,619 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.