4041 Fairfax Rd · Baltimore, MD 21216

$105,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,287 sqft · Townhouse public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1930 2,250 sqft lot $82/sqft · 48% below area Est $202k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom townhouse located in a tree-lined community in Forest Park is an excellent investment opportunity! Finish what's been started and add this to your rental portfolio or rehab and sell! The property features the classic Federal architectural style with durable brick construction. The interior floorplan offers an open living/dining room area. There is a spacious backyard available for outdoor activities and entertaining. The full basement is waiting to be finished for additional living space or storage. There is also a rough-in located in the basement to add an additional bathroom. The location in Forest Park is advantageous, as it is in close proximity to many amenities, such as

Key facts

• Built 1930
• Listed 164 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,684/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $105k implies a 545% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.06%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,980
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -48.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4145 Fairfax Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-2%)	5mo	$230,500	$183	79
3929 Duvall Ave	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,248 (-3%)	6mo	$270,000	$216	77
4119 Fairview Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (+4%)	3mo	$235,000	$175	74
2914 Chelsea Ter	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,327 (+3%)	14mo	$258,000	$194	72
4222 Bonner Rd	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,380 (+7%)	9mo	$155,000	$112	70
4120 Norfolk Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-6%)	14mo	$60,800	$50	69
4110 Fairview Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,464 (+14%)	0mo	$150,000	$102	67
4002 Woodhaven Ave	0.07mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,354 (+5%)	13mo	$268,000	$198	62
3425 Liberty Heights Ave	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,320 (+3%)	6mo	$75,000	$57	51
3411 Liberty Heights Ave	0.65mi	3/3.5	1,360 (+6%)	5mo	$258,000	$190	46
4311 Chatham Rd	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,404 (+9%)	6mo	$240,000	$171	38
3409 Mondawmin Ave	0.68mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,400 (+9%)	12mo	$249,500	$178	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $30,616
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $104,676
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21216

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $878/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $845

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $722	-5% $693	+0% $663	+5% $633	+10% $604
Rent	-10% $530	-5% $596	+0% $663	+5% $729	+10% $796
Rate	-1.0pp $716	-0.5pp $690	base $663	+0.5pp $636	+1.0pp $608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4309 Norfolk Ave Unit 1st Floor Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1470	$1,500	$1.02	12d	1	0.28mi
3915 Liberty Heights Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	680	$1,345	$1.98	14d	5	0.46mi
3904 Gwynns Falls Pkwy Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,600	$1.47	45d	1	0.50mi
3403 Carlisle Ave Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	12d	1	0.54mi
2220 Lyndhurst Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	25d	1	0.55mi
4738 Wakefield Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	884	$1,200	$1.36	25d	1	0.59mi
2103 Chelsea Ter Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	16d	1	0.71mi
2103 Chelsea Ter Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,100	$1.40	16d	1	0.71mi
3508 Grantley Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	25d	1	0.72mi
3514 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,199	$1.30	45d	1	0.78mi
3514 Clifton Ave Unit 21 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,150	$1.24	45d	1	0.78mi
2742 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,350	$1.32	45d	2	0.82mi
3615 Mohawk Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,610	$1.61	45d	1	0.83mi
3617 Mohawk Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	45d	1	0.84mi
3001 Carlisle Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,300	$1.27	45d	1	0.85mi
2738 N Longwood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,399	$1.37	45d	1	0.87mi
3028 Hanlon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,711	$1.43	25d	1	0.89mi
3709 Nortonia Rd #2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1289	$1,450	$1.12	19d	1	0.92mi
3017 Poplar Ter Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	880	$1,349	$1.53	25d	1	1.02mi
3601 Howard Park Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	45d	1	1.07mi
3204 Sequoia Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1791	$2,600	$1.45	45d	1	1.09mi
4998 W Forest Park Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,875	$2.37	16d	15	1.16mi
5006 Windsor Mill Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,899	$2.45	3d	18	1.16mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	1.17mi
2917 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	25d	1	1.21mi
3727 Milford Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	45d	1	1.21mi
3003 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	841	$935	$1.11	3d	3	1.25mi
2812 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,850	$1.12	45d	1	1.26mi
3309 Brighton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,700	$1.50	45d	1	1.30mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	25d	1	1.32mi
3127 Baker St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	1.33mi
1513 N Ellamont St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	25d	1	1.36mi
1530 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,895	$1.15	16d	1	1.37mi
3935 Stokes Dr #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,400	$1.22	45d	1	1.38mi
5136 Oaklawn Rd Gwynn Oak, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	896	$1,710	$1.91	3d	22	1.38mi
4113 Mountwood Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1520	$1,795	$1.18	45d	1	1.41mi
3104 Tioga Pkwy Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,050	$1.25	23d	1	1.41mi
4230 Towanda Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	19d	1	1.41mi
4103 Mountwood Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,700	$1.65	45d	1	1.42mi
5533 Gwynn Oak Ave Fl 1 Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,600	$1.48	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    historical
16. 2026-03-25
    price $105,000
17. 2026-02-20
    price $115,500
18. 2026-01-04
    listed $118,900 Active
19. 2002-06-02
    soldstatus $16,286
20. 2002-04-02
    historical
21. 2002-03-15
    listed $17,000
22. 1993-06-30
    soldstatus $44,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $878 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,011 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$133/yr (+$11/mo · 15.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$878
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $6,637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,593
• After-tax cash flow: $6,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 29,426
• Household income: $42,031
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2264.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 164.3933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+136.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $105,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $115,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-04 Listed $118,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-06-02 Sold (MLS) $16,286 MRIS
• 2002-04-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-03-15 Listed $17,000 MRIS
• 1993-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $878 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.