19 Maple Ave · Gowanda, NY 14070

$64,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1940 5,643 sqft lot $44/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Bones!! Beautiful street. Hardwood floors throughout. Bring your ideas and make this yours!

Key facts

• 5,643 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#457 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gowanda Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #513 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $57,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.56%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,693
• List price: $64,900
• Delta: -62.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Aldrich St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,469 (+1%)	4mo	$176,500	$120	80
39 Chestnut St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,512 (+4%)	8mo	$160,000	$106	72
43 Miller St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+3%)	1mo	$215,000	$143	62
23 Aldrich St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-8%)	20mo	$212,000	$158	55
11070 Fairview Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-8%)	9mo	$210,000	$156	54
30 Saint John St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,284 (-12%)	15mo	$137,000	$107	49
57 E Hill St	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	8mo	$200,000	$160	48
32 Miller St	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,530 (+5%)	19mo	$170,000	$111	47
18 Frederick St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,435 (-2%)	11mo	$122,900	$86	46
26 Park St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,396 (-4%)	16mo	$130,000	$93	46
120 Buffalo St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,641 (+12%)	19mo	$100,000	$61	34
36 Park St	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,668 (+14%)	20mo	$145,000	$87	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $60,044
• Equity at exit: $58,467

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.67×
• Total profit: $157,516
• Equity at exit: $126,086

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14070

• Home prices YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,479/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $621

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $424	-5% $405	+0% $387	+5% $369	+10% $350
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $343	+0% $387	+5% $431	+10% $475
Rate	-1.0pp $420	-0.5pp $404	base $387	+0.5pp $370	+1.0pp $353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,900 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,900 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $64,900 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $64,900 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $64,900 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $64,900 Active 175 DOM
7. 2025-12-07
   listed $64,900 Active 97-char remark

   Show marketing remark (97 chars)

   Great Bones!! Beautiful street. Hardwood floors throughout. Bring your ideas and make this yours!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,479 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,479 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,479
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,067
• − Management: −$1,067
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $3,873
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$929
• After-tax cash flow: $3,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gowanda Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612390
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,777
• Composite: 34.71/100
• National rank: #5138
• State rank: #513 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gowanda

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #7988

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gowanda, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,437

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Native American 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.64%
• Current HPI: 269.1092
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-07 Listed $64,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,479 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.