409 N Stardust Ln · Bluewater, AZ 85344

$74,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 1969 Fair condition 5,000 sqft lot $94/sqft · 25% above area Est $60k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

on lease land NO HOA NO Property Tax! Charming 2 bed mobile home that comes furnished and is ready to enjoy! Features include a covered carport, spacious family room, and covered front porch perfect for relaxing outdoors. Located in a desirable 24-hour guard gated river access community with HOA amenities that include a community launch ramp, pool, park, and clubhouse. Great opportunity for a weekend getaway, vacation home, or full-time living near the river!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Covered carport
• Pool

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• RIVER ACCESS COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY LAUNCH RAMP
• POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land is leased

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Approximately 800 total living area; Mobile dimensions about 12' x 60'; Located in Bluewater Lagoon subdivision; Zoned PA-MH (Manufactured Home Overlay District)
• Construction: Single wide manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Gunite pool

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Furnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $869 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 9.9% in Bluewater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $72,653 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.70%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,000
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: 24.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
401 Bluewater Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0	750 (-6%)	2mo	$60,000	$80	84
322 N Misty Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	840 (+5%)	5mo	$112,500	$134	80
408 N Stardust Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0	720 (-10%)	0mo	$52,500	$73	78
431 Paradise Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	720 (-10%)	18mo	$103,000	$143	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $43,212
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $108,972
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85344

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $869

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $920	-5% $894	+0% $869	+5% $843	+10% $817
Rent	-10% $730	-5% $799	+0% $869	+5% $938	+10% $1,007
Rate	-1.0pp $906	-0.5pp $888	base $869	+0.5pp $849	+1.0pp $829

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $74,900 Active 463-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $9,815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,356
• After-tax cash flow: $8,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home requires extensive repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Exposed subflooring and debris
• Major Flooring — Worn carpet
• Major Interior walls/paint — Worn paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior repairs — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior paint and flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Exposed subflooring and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · Worn paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior repairs — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior paint and flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parker Unified School District (4510)
• NCES district ID: 0405980
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,354
• Composite: 14.76/100
• National rank: #9392
• State rank: #200 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bluewater

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #12872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bluewater, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,069

Population outlook (La Paz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,409 people
• By 2030: 17,592 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,600 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 16,328 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 17,075 · -7.2%
• By 2100: 17,042 · -7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Native American 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · La Paz

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.6% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.38%
• Current HPI: 198.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $74,900 LHAR