8401 S Kolb Rd #425 · Tucson, AZ 85756

$89,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1994 Average condition 1,742 sqft lot Garage $47/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.9

Listing remarks

Price Range: Seller to accept or counter offers between $89,950 and $99,950. Welcome to Trails West! 55+ active adult community that has everything you want! This Palm Harbor home is particularly special, as it is one of the largest homes in the community for sale at nearly 2000 square feet and yet it's under 100k! Made with 2x6 framing, a water softener, a 10x12 shed, and completed with all LED lighting inside for efficiency. Also within walking distance to 1 of the 2 pools in the community! The home has been taken care of with love and care. Open, spacious, and plenty of light to brighten up your days. The Arizona room is glass-enclosed so get the most out of it during all seasons.

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Water softener
• 10x12 shed

Tags

• WATER SOFTENER
• 10X12 SHED
• LED LIGHTING
• WALKING DISTANCE TO POOLS
• ARIZONA ROOM
• LARGE PANTRY CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 3.8% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Willow Elementary School (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 712 students, 34% FRL); Rincon Vista Middle School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade D, #47 of 218 statewide, top 21%, 699 students, 23% FRL); Mica Mountain High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 1,161 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,251 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.06%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,500
• List price: $89,950
• Delta: -60.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7802 E Treetop Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,955 (+3%)	1mo	$365,000	$187	68
7841 E Treetop Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,955 (+3%)	4mo	$345,000	$176	64
9112 S Whispering Pine Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,776 (-7%)	4mo	$350,000	$197	63
7314 E Heartwood Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-8%)	3mo	$320,000	$183	61
7848 E Jack Oak Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,955 (+3%)	5mo	$365,000	$187	59
7455 E Fair Meadows Loop	0.43mi	3/3.5	2,072 (+9%)	3mo	$330,000	$159	57
9068 S Whispering Pine Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,072 (+9%)	1mo	$358,000	$173	54
7830 E Treetop Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,086 (+10%)	5mo	$379,900	$182	51
7569 E Picket Fence Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,135 (+12%)	2mo	$399,990	$187	48
7197 E Alderberry St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,601 (-16%)	0mo	$320,000	$200	47
7574 E Autumn Leaf Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,135 (+12%)	0mo	$400,000	$187	44
7741 E Big Meadow Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,174 (+14%)	1mo	$350,000	$161	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $24,605
• Equity at exit: $13,412

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $65,567
• Equity at exit: $7,777

Cash invested: $25,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active
• Median asking: $192,400 ($130/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85756

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,349/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $89,950

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $714	-5% $683	+0% $652	+5% $621	+10% $590
Rent	-10% $525	-5% $588	+0% $652	+5% $716	+10% $779
Rate	-1.0pp $697	-0.5pp $675	base $652	+0.5pp $629	+1.0pp $605

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,488
• Closing costs: $2,698
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7500 E Voyager Rd Unit 138 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,599	$1.07	115d	1	0.26mi
7380 E Maritime Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1800	$3,000	$1.67	97d	1	0.33mi
7679 E Fair Meadows Loop Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.5	1850	$4,500	$2.43	0d	1	0.39mi
7685 E Fair Meadows Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1387	$1,775	$1.28	62d	1	0.41mi
7651 E Majestic Palm Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	2072	$1,995	$0.96	85d	1	0.44mi
9133 S Whispering Pine Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	2289	$2,250	$0.98	0d	1	0.47mi
7325 E Weeping Willow Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1660	$1,795	$1.08	71d	1	0.52mi
9029 S Cedarbrook Ln Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,915	$1.04	58d	1	0.59mi
7171 E Alderberry St Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1727	$1,875	$1.09	0d	1	0.60mi
8079 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.5	1650	$1,995	$1.21	0d	1	1.26mi
8042 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	106d	1	1.33mi
6794 E Sea Horse Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	139d	1	1.33mi
8011 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,775	$0.99	82d	1	1.39mi
6729 E Neptune Cove Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,799	$1.25	0d	1	1.45mi
7996 S Nautilus Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1598	$1,850	$1.16	119d	1	1.48mi
6642 E Bambino Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$1,699	$1.06	74d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Owner-occupiedZoned Vail - CMH2
• HOA & community: Gated community with shared amenities (pool, spa, rec center, shuffleboard, sidewalks)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 covered/carport spaces (oversized)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterSewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured homeSingle-story
• Construction: Wood frame constructionShingle roofBuilt to current manufactured-home standards
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porchShed(s)North/South exposurePaved road accessCommunity pool and spaShuffleboard and recreation centerGated community with sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorGas range
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilingsWalk-in closetsSkylightsSmoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $89,950 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $89,950 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $89,950 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $89,950 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $89,950 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $89,950 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $89,950 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $99,500 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $99,500 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $99,500 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $99,500 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $99,500 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $99,500 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $99,500 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 21 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 18 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $99,500 Active 17 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $99,500 Active 16 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $99,500 Active 15 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $99,500 Active 14 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $99,500 Active 13 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $99,500 Active 12 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $99,500 Active 11 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $99,500 Active 10 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $99,500 Active 9 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $99,500 Active 8 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $99,500 Active 7 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $99,500 Active 6 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $99,500 Active 5 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $99,500 Active 4 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $99,500 Active 3 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $99,500 Active 2 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    pricedays on marketlisting id $99,500 Active 1 DOM
36. 2026-07-10
    days on market $109,000 Active 120 DOM
37. 2026-07-09
    days on market $109,000 Active 119 DOM
38. 2026-07-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 117 DOM
39. 2026-07-06
    days on market $109,000 Active 116 DOM
40. 2026-07-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 115 DOM
41. 2026-07-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 113 DOM
42. 2026-07-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 112 DOM
43. 2026-07-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 111 DOM
44. 2026-06-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 110 DOM
45. 2026-06-29
    days on market $109,000 Active 109 DOM
46. 2026-06-28
    days on market $109,000 Active 108 DOM
47. 2026-06-27
    days on market $109,000 Active 107 DOM
48. 2026-06-27
    days on market $109,000 Active 106 DOM
49. 2026-06-25
    days on market $109,000 Active 104 DOM
50. 2026-06-22
    days on market $109,000 Active 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥104°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,039
• − Property taxes: −$1,349
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,548
• − Management: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$2,617
• Taxable income: $6,796
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,631
• After-tax cash flow: $6,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $47,600–$85,680 screening

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in a 55+ community requires moderate repairs and updates to its kitchen and bathroom, as well as painting and flooring. The property has average curb appeal and interior condition, with potential for significant value increase through renovations.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom vanity — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen and bathroom — modernizing will increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeting — new flooring will improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Desert Willow Elementary School C- AZ #233/1,109 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Rincon Vista Middle School D AZ #47/218 Nat'l #4,747/14,009 High Pantano High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,700
• Household income: $72,490
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 23% Black 7% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.28%
• Current HPI: 304.0243
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Owner-occupiedZoned Vail - CMH2
• HOA & community: Gated community with shared amenities (pool, spa, rec center, shuffleboard, sidewalks)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 covered/carport spaces (oversized)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterSewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured homeSingle-story
• Construction: Wood frame constructionShingle roofBuilt to current manufactured-home standards
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porchShed(s)North/South exposurePaved road accessCommunity pool and spaShuffleboard and recreation centerGated community with sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorGas range
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilingsWalk-in closetsSkylightsSmoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-13 Listed $99,500 MLSSAZ
• 2026-07-10 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $109,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-12 Listed $110,000 MLSSAZ