8401 S Kolb Rd #425 · Tucson, AZ 85756

$109,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured · 98 Days on market

Built 1994 Average condition 1,742 sqft lot $57/sqft · 44% below area Est $194k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Trails West Resort Park, a 55+ community with wonderful amenities to keep you active! Pools, jacuzzies, shuffle board, firepits, grills, fitness room, clubhouse, library, pool tables, and a dog park, Offering this beautifully inviting 3 bedroom 2 bath Palm Harbor home with Arizona Room, and a shed/workshop with electric. Features include vaulted ceilings, split-floor plan, a charming kitchen with ample cabinet/counter space and gas range. The spacious primary suite boasts a large walk-in closet and en-suite with a walk-in shower and additional linen storage. This is a manufactured home park sale includes personal property only; land does not convey. Buyer must complete the community application process and receive corporate office approval prior to making an offer. Welcome Home!

Key facts

• Firepits
• Jacuzzies
• Shuffle board

Tags

• 55 COMMUNITY
• POOLS
• JACUZZIES
• SHUFFLE BOARD
• FIREPITS
• GRILLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $972 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,190 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.21%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,125
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: -43.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7550 E Benson Hwy	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,696 (-11%)	4mo	$253,500	$149	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $41,063
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $102,829
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85756

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $972

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7500 E Voyager Rd Unit 138 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,599	$1.07	19d	1	0.26mi
7380 E Maritime Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1800	$3,000	$1.67	1d	1	0.33mi
7651 E Majestic Palm Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	2072	$1,995	$0.96	1d	1	0.44mi
9029 S Cedarbrook Ln Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,915	$1.04	1d	1	0.59mi
8042 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	10d	1	1.33mi
6794 E Sea Horse Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	43d	1	1.33mi
8011 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,900	$1.06	1d	1	1.39mi
7996 S Nautilus Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1598	$1,850	$1.16	23d	1	1.48mi
6642 E Bambino Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$1,895	$1.18	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $109,000 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Welcome to Trails West Resort Park, a 55+ community with wonderful amenities to keep you active! Pools, jacuzzies, shuffle board, firepits, grills, fitness room, clubhouse, library, pool tables, and a dog park, Offering this beautifully inviting 3 bedroom 2 bath Palm Harbor home with Arizona Room, and a shed/workshop with electric. Features include vaulted ceilings, split-floor plan, a charming kitchen with ample cabinet/counter space and gas range. The spacious primary suite boasts a large walk-in closet and en-suite with a walk-in shower and additional linen storage. This is a manufactured home park sale includes personal property only; land does not convey. Buyer must complete the community application process and receive corporate office approval prior to making an offer. Welcome Home!

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $110,000 Active 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Welcome to Trails West Resort Park, a 55+ community with wonderful amenities to keep you active! Pools, jacuzzies, shuffle board, firepits, grills, fitness room, clubhouse, library, pool tables, and a dog park, Offering this beautifully inviting 3 bedroom 2 bath Palm Harbor home with Arizona Room, and a shed/workshop with electric. Features include vaulted ceilings, split-floor plan, a charming kitchen with ample cabinet/counter space and gas range. The spacious primary suite boasts a large walk-in closet and en-suite with a walk-in shower and additional linen storage. This is a manufactured home park sale includes personal property only; land does not convey. Buyer must complete the community application process and receive corporate office approval prior to making an offer. Welcome Home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥104°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $10,555
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,533
• After-tax cash flow: $9,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in a 55+ community requires moderate repairs and updates to its kitchen and bathroom, as well as painting and flooring. The property has average curb appeal and interior condition, with potential for significant value increase through renovations.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom vanity — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen and bathroom — modernizing will increase both resale and rental value
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeting — new flooring will improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom vanity · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · moderate wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen and bathroom — modernizing will increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeting — new flooring will improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,700
• Household income: $72,490
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 23% Black 7% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.28%
• Current HPI: 304.0243
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $109,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-12 Listed $110,000 MLSSAZ