410 Main St · Grahamsville, NY 12740

$279,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,840 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 213 Days on market

Built 1864 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment property situated on 1.1 acres. This two unit home features 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths on the right side while the left side has two bedrooms and one full bath. The right side of the house is currently used as a airbnb. The unit to the left has been completely renovated with an updated bathroom and kitchen. The front porch has new decking and railings. The main floor was recently painted and updated full bathroom. The kitchen has new floors painted cabinet. Large bedroom upstairs with walk-in closet, a second bedroom, and additional sitting area. Newer windows have recently been installed and new water heater and well tank. New installed small pond in the backyard up the hill. Very close to town. Close to Neversink and Rondout Reservoir and state land for hunting. Kartrite Water Park, Holiday Mountain and Minnewaska State Park nearby and only two hours from NYC. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached. A/O

Key facts

• Two unit home
• New decking
• Investment property

Tags

• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• TWO UNIT HOME
• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW DECKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $157/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.7% in Grahamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Tri-Valley Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #488 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-563 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $279k implies a 448% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1864 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1864 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.86%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $9,254
• Equity at exit: $78,208

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $67,543
• Equity at exit: $91,799

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12740

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,676/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,366

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 84%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$2,764
Total (2 units)			$2,764

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 981-char remark

   Show marketing remark (981 chars)

   Great investment property situated on 1.1 acres. This two unit home features 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths on the right side while the left side has two bedrooms and one full bath. The right side of the house is currently used as a airbnb. The unit to the left has been completely renovated with an updated bathroom and kitchen. The front porch has new decking and railings. The main floor was recently painted and updated full bathroom. The kitchen has new floors painted cabinet. Large bedroom upstairs with walk-in closet, a second bedroom, and additional sitting area. Newer windows have recently been installed and new water heater and well tank. New installed small pond in the backyard up the hill. Very close to town. Close to Neversink and Rondout Reservoir and state land for hunting. Kartrite Water Park, Holiday Mountain and Minnewaska State Park nearby and only two hours from NYC. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached. A/O

2. 2025-10-10
   listed $279,000 Active 981-char remark

   Show marketing remark (981 chars)

   Great investment property situated on 1.1 acres. This two unit home features 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths on the right side while the left side has two bedrooms and one full bath. The right side of the house is currently used as a airbnb. The unit to the left has been completely renovated with an updated bathroom and kitchen. The front porch has new decking and railings. The main floor was recently painted and updated full bathroom. The kitchen has new floors painted cabinet. Large bedroom upstairs with walk-in closet, a second bedroom, and additional sitting area. Newer windows have recently been installed and new water heater and well tank. New installed small pond in the backyard up the hill. Very close to town. Close to Neversink and Rondout Reservoir and state land for hunting. Kartrite Water Park, Holiday Mountain and Minnewaska State Park nearby and only two hours from NYC. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached. A/O

3. 2025-07-20
   historical
4. 2025-07-01
   status Active
5. 2025-05-19
   status Active
6. 2025-05-11
   historical
7. 2025-01-07
   listed $269,000 Active
8. 2023-12-15
   historical
9. 2023-09-22
   status Active
10. 2023-09-06
    price $297,000
11. 2023-09-06
    status Active
12. 2023-08-15
    listed $299,000 Active
13. 2022-08-30
    historical
14. 2022-05-19
    price $199,999
15. 2022-05-19
    price $199,999
16. 2022-05-02
    listed $225,000 Active
17. 2022-05-02
    listed $225,000 Active
18. 2022-04-21
    historical
19. 2020-07-22
    soldstatus $50,888
20. 2020-07-02
    soldstatus $50,888 Closed
21. 2020-05-29
    status Pending
22. 2020-04-30
    listed $45,000 Active
23. 2017-06-12
    historical
24. 2017-01-20
    listed $39,900
25. 2017-01-04
    historical
26. 2017-01-04
    historical
27. 2016-11-18
    listed
28. 2016-11-18
    listed $69,000
29. 2003-08-04
    soldstatus $122,500
30. 2000-06-30
    soldstatus $82,000
31. 1983-08-16
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,676 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,696 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,020/yr (+$85/mo · 38.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,676
• − Insurance: −$2,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,653
• − Management: −$2,653
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$180
• After-tax cash flow: $3,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628890
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,543
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4662
• State rank: #488 of 590 in NY

Livability — Grahamsville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grahamsville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,683

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.20%
• Current HPI: 314.027
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1330.8% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Listed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Listed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-22 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $297,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-15 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-19 Price Changed $199,999 HVCRMLS
• 2022-05-19 Price Changed $199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-02 Listed $225,000 HVCRMLS
• 2022-05-02 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-21 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $50,888 Public Records
• 2020-07-02 Sold (MLS) $50,888 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-30 Listed $45,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-20 Listed $39,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-04 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2016-11-18 Listed $69,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-18 Listed — HGMLS
• 2003-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records
• 2000-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1983-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,676 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.