8064 W Cactus Wren Way · Florence, AZ 85132

$334,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · Land · 96 Days on market

Built 2026 $219/sqft · 19% below area Est $411k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bergamot is one of the community's most economical floorplans, offering 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a versatile den. This great-value home includes a covered patio and café area, with an option to extend the garage for added storage and flexibility.

Key facts

• Cafe area
• Covered patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• CAFE AREA
• OPTION TO EXTEND GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-554/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,706 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,166
• List price: $334,990
• Delta: -18.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-61,602
• Equity at exit: $49,948

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-74,804
• Equity at exit: $28,964

Cash invested: $93,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 737
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,467 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,186/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,525

Max offer price $326,841

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $49	+0% $-46	+5% $-141	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-144	+0% $-46	+5% $51	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $39	base $-46	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,748
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1586	$3,500	$2.21	45d	1	0.44mi
4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	26d	1	0.71mi
3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	45d	1	0.95mi
6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	45d	1	1.04mi
6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	45d	1	1.13mi
8555 W Georgetown Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,800	$1.78	45d	1	1.17mi
8031 W Rushmore Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2041	$1,700	$0.83	0d	1	1.17mi
8508 W Rushmore Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.5	2056	$3,300	$1.61	45d	1	1.18mi
3658 N Princeton Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	45d	1	1.25mi
6614 E Lush Vista Vw Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	45d	1	1.28mi
6817 E Quiet Retreat Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,625	$1.27	26d	1	1.35mi
2528 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2002	$2,195	$1.10	45d	1	1.36mi
6498 W Victory Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	2144	$2,095	$0.98	7d	1	1.38mi
8502 W Millerton Way Florence, AZ	3.0	3.0	1920	$1,785	$0.93	26d	1	1.39mi
2313 N Presidential Dr Unit 1545866P Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,578	$1.46	17d	1	1.39mi
7635 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	45d	1	1.45mi
7347 W Millerton Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,695	$1.17	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $334,990 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,990 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,990 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,990 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,990 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,990 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,990 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $334,990 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,040 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,040 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $349,040 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $311,615 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,915 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,915 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,915 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-03-18
    listed $310,915 Active 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    The Bergamot is one of the community's most economical floorplans, offering 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a versatile den. This great-value home includes a covered patio and café area, with an option to extend the garage for added storage and flexibility.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,186 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,211 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,025/yr (+$85/mo · 86.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$1,186
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,368
• − Management: −$2,368
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$6,502
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,561
• After-tax cash flow: $1,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $310,915 Zillow

Property tax history

+1254.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,186 · +1254.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.