4140 Lakeside Dr · Rocklin, CA 95677

$63,750

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 1975 Fair condition $51/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity meets charm in this spacious 1,248 sq ft home located in the desirable all-ages Sierra Lakes community in Rocklin! Featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home offers both a large living room and a separate family room, perfect for flexible living and entertaining. You'll love the character of the beautiful stained-glass windows, which add a unique and inviting touch throughout. The kitchen features newer stainless steel appliances, including a refrigerator, gas range, oven, microwave, and dishwasher, while the indoor laundry room, with washer and dryer included, adds everyday convenience. The primary bathroom has been tastefully updated with a new tile shower stall. This hom

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Community pool
• Large shed

Tags

• STAINED-GLASS WINDOWS
• NEW TILE SHOWER STALL
• LARGE SHED
• FULL KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY POOL
• FREEWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $970 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.6% vs local median 2.7% in Rocklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#136 in CA, #4,755 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Rocklin Unified (suburban): math 44% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #96 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $440 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,793 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.88%
• DSCR: 5.18
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,077
• List price: $63,750
• Delta: -50.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4140 Lakeside Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$55,000	$44	99
4267 Fernwood St	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	6mo	$130,000	$104	86
4212 Rockwood St	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,141 (-9%)	0mo	$158,600	$139	76
4264 Fernwood St #54	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+4%)	8mo	$100,000	$77	74
5505 South Grv #60	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	12mo	$125,000	$109	72
5505 S Grove St #88	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,314 (+5%)	13mo	$90,000	$68	71
4311 Oakwood St	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	16mo	$115,000	$89	69
5505 S Grove St #15	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,293 (+4%)	20mo	$169,000	$131	68
5505 S Grove St #113	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,164 (-7%)	15mo	$112,000	$96	66
4288 Fernwood St #48	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	15mo	$65,000	$56	65
5505 S Grove St #51	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+11%)	10mo	$135,000	$98	64
4319 Oakwood St	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	10mo	$151,000	$110	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $51,577
• Equity at exit: $9,505

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.00×
• Total profit: $124,992
• Equity at exit: $5,512

Cash invested: $17,850 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95677

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$334
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$80 /mo · $956/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $970

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,098

Max offer price $63,750

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,014	-5% $992	+0% $970	+5% $948	+10% $926
Rent	-10% $786	-5% $878	+0% $970	+5% $1,062	+10% $1,154
Rate	-1.0pp $1,002	-0.5pp $986	base $970	+0.5pp $953	+1.0pp $937

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,938
• Closing costs: $1,912
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5415 S Grove St Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	765	$2,100	$2.75	2d	6	0.12mi
4769 Racetrack Cir Rocklin, CA	3.0	2.0	1148	$2,950	$2.57	44d	1	0.50mi
5800 Woodside Dr Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,239	$2.63	4d	4	0.51mi
6250 Westwood Dr Rocklin, CA	2.0	1.0	827	$1,995	$2.41	24d	1	1.09mi
6260 Westwood Dr Rocklin, CA	2.0	1.0	828	$1,995	$2.41	12d	1	1.10mi
6260 Westwood Dr Rocklin, CA	2.0	1.0	827	$1,995	$2.41	22d	1	1.10mi
1501 Cobble Creek Cir Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,300	$2.61	2d	7	1.30mi
5051 El Don Dr Rocklin, CA	2.0	2.0	1125	$2,270	$2.02	2d	7	1.31mi
3041 Twin Creeks Ln Rocklin, CA	3.0	2.0	986	$2,695	$2.73	24d	1	1.34mi
5902 Springview Dr Rocklin, CA	2.0	2.0	840	$2,199	$2.62	24d	1	1.36mi
5902 Springview Dr Rocklin, CA	2.0	2.0	840	$2,099	$2.50	15d	1	1.36mi
5180 Rocklin Rd Rocklin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$2,552	$2.98	2d	9	1.42mi
5953 Springview Dr Rocklin, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	840	$2,083	$2.48	3d	6	1.43mi
6115 Brookside Cir Rocklin, CA	3.0	3.0	1150	$2,783	$2.42	2d	1	1.47mi
6115 Brookside Cir Rocklin, CA	3.0	3.0	1150	$2,814	$2.45	24d	1	1.47mi
6115 Brookside Cir Rocklin, CA	2.0	3.0	1102	$2,706	$2.46	5d	1	1.47mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,571
• − Property taxes: −$956
• − Insurance: −$5,437
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − Depreciation: −$1,855
• Taxable income: $11,620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,789
• After-tax cash flow: $8,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations, focusing on updating the kitchen and flooring, to significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Older and outdated
• Major Flooring — Worn carpet needs replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both New flooring — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes kitchen and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Older and outdated	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Flooring · Worn carpet needs replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$18,000–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New flooring — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes kitchen and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rocklin Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600013
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $82,858
• Composite: 49.58/100
• National rank: #1984
• State rank: #96 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rocklin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #4755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocklin, CA
• County: Placer County · 390,510 people
• City population: 73,077
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 29,206
• Household income: $105,713
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -443.08%
• Current HPI: 278.1359
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B