8625 Giovanni Ave · Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,658 sqft · Land · 120 Days on market

Built 2026 4,095 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

COMPETITIVE RATES, AND FLEX INCENTIVES. .. . REALTOR COOPERATION WELCOMED 3% NEW CONSTRUCTION - VILLA-MODEL 1658, 3 ROOMS 2 BATH, FLEX AND 2 CAR GARAGE READY APRIL 2026! Discover the perfect blend of modern design and affordable luxury in the highly desirable Waterstone Community. This stunning 1,658 sq. ft. floor plan features a spacious open-concept layout and sleek "MODERN FINISHES", ideal for contemporary Florida living. Spacious Living: 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, Flex and a 2-Car Garage. Enjoy a beautiful covered patio. Waterstone offers premium amenities, including a clubhouse, pool, tennis, and pickleball courts. Flex Cash Available: Use toward closing costs or rate buy-

Key facts

• 4,095 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-219/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weatherbee Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 672 students, 90% FRL); Dan Mccarty Middle School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 747 students, 88% FRL); Fort Pierce Westwood Academy The W.E.S.T. Prep Magnet (math 16% / reading 36%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,010 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Lucie average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,658/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 140% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,772 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-53,864
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-48,556
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,658 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,377/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,681

Max offer price $321,779

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5154 Armina Pl Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,350	$1.59	13d	1	0.25mi
5082 Armina Pl Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$3,000	$2.05	23d	1	0.25mi
5226 Armina Pl Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,950	$1.47	21d	1	0.32mi
8674 Pavia St Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,600	$1.43	21d	1	0.57mi
5234 Oakland Lake Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,300	$1.58	13d	1	0.92mi
7704 Pacific Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1719	$2,500	$1.45	13d	1	1.18mi
6602 Palomar Pkwy Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	23d	1	1.34mi
5010 Killarney Ave Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	1720	$1,500	$0.87	23d	1	1.35mi
7403 Winter Garden Pkwy Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,200	$1.60	21d	1	1.42mi
5510 Shannon Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,350	$1.47	13d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $325,000
3. 2026-03-12
   price $328,772
4. 2026-03-04
   price $322,772
5. 2026-02-23
   price $332,722
6. 2026-01-31
   price $314,772
7. 2026-01-31
   status Active
8. 2026-01-24
   price $343,722
9. 2026-01-24
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2025-12-28
    listed $339,772 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,698 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,377
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,551
• − Management: −$2,551
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$5,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,400
• After-tax cash flow: $1,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Park

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $325,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $328,772 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $322,772 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $332,722 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $314,772 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-31 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $343,722 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-24 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-28 Listed $339,772 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,377 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.