3621 Neilson Ave · Youngstown, OH 44502

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1917 5,009 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large bedrooms, 1 & 1/2 baths! Newer Breaker box & 220 line to 2 car garage. Newer Forced air furnace, Hot water tank & Water lines had been replaced. Needs repairs so price has been lowered to current price. Seller will look at creatitive financing with a down payment. Land Contract is possible. Blacktop driveway. Beautiful original woodwork and large foyer. Motivated Seller.

Key facts

• 5,009 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1917

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available (excluded per instructions)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached paved garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home; Faces west
• Construction: Aluminum and wood siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Partial fencing; Irregular lot measuring approximately 40 x 125

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air gas heating; Window AC units
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $673 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 7.0% in Youngstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Youngstown City (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #649 of 656 in OH (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,250/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $886 appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $50k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.78%
• DSCR: 3.57
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1925 Weston Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,227 (+10%)	1mo	$89,000	$73	58
2510 E Midlothian Blvd	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,016 (-9%)	3mo	$107,500	$106	57
1633 Everett Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,202 (+7%)	5mo	$125,000	$104	56
1562 Medford Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (+4%)	3mo	$129,156	$110	55
2002 Bancroft Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-4%)	4mo	$131,500	$122	51
612 Maplewood Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (-6%)	3mo	$135,000	$128	50
417 9th St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,260 (+12%)	2mo	$93,000	$74	50
3006 Shirley Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (-9%)	0mo	$105,000	$103	47
515 Lincoln Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	984 (-12%)	1mo	$179,900	$183	44
2743 Mount Vernon Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (+11%)	4mo	$65,000	$52	42
1321 Detroit Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,001 (-11%)	2mo	$60,000	$60	40
2692 Taft Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	990 (-12%)	3mo	$30,000	$30	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $45,706
• Equity at exit: $19,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.64×
• Total profit: $106,794
• Equity at exit: $27,024

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44502

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $390/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $399

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $701	-5% $687	+0% $673	+5% $659	+10% $645
Rent	-10% $574	-5% $623	+0% $673	+5% $722	+10% $772
Rate	-1.0pp $698	-0.5pp $685	base $673	+0.5pp $660	+1.0pp $647

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1914 S Heights Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1115	$1,950	$1.75	44d	1	0.18mi
1803 Pointview Ave Youngstown, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	44d	1	0.23mi
2002 Brownlee Ave Youngstown, OH	1.0	1.0	820	$875	$1.07	44d	1	0.48mi
2523 E Midlothian Blvd Apt 5 Struthers, OH	2.0	1.0	750	$800	$1.07	14d	1	0.53mi
610 Elm St Struthers, OH	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,500	$1.43	14d	1	0.63mi
834 E Midlothian Blvd Youngstown, OH	1.0	1.0	708	$750	$1.06	14d	1	1.19mi
512 E Philadelphia Ave Unit 1 Youngstown, OH	2.0	1.0	1200	$899	$0.75	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-01-16
    listed $49,900 Active
18. 2011-04-05
    soldstatus $15,000
19. 2011-04-04
    soldstatus $15,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Large bedrooms, 1 & 1/2 baths! Newer Breaker box & 220 line to 2 car garage. Newer Forced air furnace, Hot water tank & Water lines had been replaced. Needs repairs so price has been lowered to current price. Seller will look at creatitive financing with a down payment. Land Contract is possible. Blacktop driveway. Beautiful original woodwork and large foyer. Motivated Seller.

20. 2010-10-04
    listed $15,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Large bedrooms, 1 & 1/2 baths! Newer Breaker box & 220 line to 2 car garage. Newer Forced air furnace, Hot water tank & Water lines had been replaced. Needs repairs so price has been lowered to current price. Seller will look at creatitive financing with a down payment. Land Contract is possible. Blacktop driveway. Beautiful original woodwork and large foyer. Motivated Seller.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $390 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $584 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 49.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$390
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $7,717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,852
• After-tax cash flow: $6,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Youngstown City
• NCES district ID: 3904516
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $25,257
• Composite: 9.29/100
• National rank: #9858
• State rank: #649 of 656 in OH

Livability — Youngstown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #1506

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Youngstown, OH
• County: Mahoning County · 84,956 people
• City population: 28,503
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,594
• Household income: $31,170
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 35% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Current HPI: 246.2163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+232.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $49,900 MLSNOW
• 2011-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-04 Sold (MLS) $15,000 MLSNOW
• 2010-10-04 Listed $15,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $390 · -11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.