11578 Violet Jasper Dr · Ruskin, FL 34219

$306,540

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,783 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $172/sqft · 14% below area Est $358k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A versatile flex room rests directly off the foyer of this modern single-story home, while down the hall, the fully-equipped kitchen, cozy nook and contemporary family room flow in an open design that leads to a sizable lanai. Nearby, the owner's suite occupies a large, private space with a generous en-suite bathroom. A guest bedroom provides convenience.

Key facts

• Sizable lanai
• En-suite bathroom
• Owner's suite

Tags

• FULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• CONTEMPORARY FAMILY ROOM
• SIZABLE LANAI
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• GUEST BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $307k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2991 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 94d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,314 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,735
• List price: $306,540
• Delta: -14.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11624 Violet Jasper Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,783 (0%)	1mo	$329,190	$185	99
11861 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,783 (0%)	15mo	$334,900	$188	82
11841 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,783 (0%)	14mo	$335,000	$188	82
11808 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,783 (0%)	10mo	$398,415	$223	81
12605 Tahitian Pearl Cir	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,782 (-0%)	6mo	$325,000	$182	81
11829 Lilac Pearl Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,956 (+10%)	0mo	$369,500	$189	75
11857 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,683 (-6%)	14mo	$339,900	$202	73
12621 Tahitian Pearl Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,782 (-0%)	16mo	$330,000	$185	72
11715 Lilac Pearl Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,959 (+10%)	12mo	$365,000	$186	68
11837 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,959 (+10%)	13mo	$324,665	$166	65
11853 Sparkling Topaz Cv	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,959 (+10%)	15mo	$364,900	$186	65
12743 Tahitian Pearl Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,959 (+10%)	14mo	$400,000	$204	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-66,422
• Equity at exit: $45,706

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-98,130
• Equity at exit: $26,504

Cash invested: $85,831 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 43.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $358,790 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2991
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$383 /mo · $4,598/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,682

Max offer price $285,001

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-43	+0% $-149	+5% $-255	+10% $-361
Rent	-10% $-346	-5% $-247	+0% $-149	+5% $-50	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-71	base $-149	+0.5pp $-228	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,635
• Closing costs: $9,196
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10650 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	5d	1	1.35mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	112d	1	1.37mi
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	94d	1	1.44mi
9911 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	10d	1	1.45mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	119d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $306,540 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $306,540 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $306,440 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,440 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-18
   price $304,440 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,140 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $304,140 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,140 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,140 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $297,140 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-10
    days on market $295,140 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-09
    days on market $295,140 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $295,140 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $287,040 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,140 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $280,140 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,940 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-06-01
    price $279,940 Active 30 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $279,740 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,171
• − Property taxes: −$4,598
• − Insurance: −$1,533
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,393
• − Management: −$2,393
• − Depreciation: −$8,918
• Taxable loss: −$7,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,701
• After-tax cash flow: $-85/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,915–$26,745 screening

This modern single-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Replace worn-out flooring — Improves the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Resale Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add landscaping around the front yard — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virgil Mills Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B