46 Winegar Ln · New York, NY 10310

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2003 2,138 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Presenting this single-family 4-bedroom, 2 full-bath duplex with a full basement and a private driveway. Drive-by only. Sale is subject to short sale approval. Ideally situated near the S54 bus line, local shops, and a diverse selection of neighborhood restaurants, the home provides excellent accessibility and everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Full basement
• 2,138 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• EXCELLENT ACCESSIBILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 27 Anning S Prall (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 952 students, 76% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 480 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.03%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $617,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46 Elizabeth St	0.28mi	4/3.0	1,217 (-0%)	5mo	$390,000	$320	79
486 Delafield Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,231 (+1%)	8mo	$586,000	$476	70
11 Curtis Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (-2%)	3mo	$750,000	$627	66
62 Lyceum Ct	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,176 (-4%)	2mo	$575,000	$489	60
30 Tom Ct	0.38mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,092 (-10%)	1mo	$560,000	$513	57
76 Alaska St	0.24mi	3/4.5 (-1)	1,144 (-6%)	8mo	$450,000	$393	57
386 N Burgher Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,394 (+14%)	6mo	$705,000	$506	56
15 Manor Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,182 (-3%)	1mo	$750,000	$635	55
145 Roe St	0.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (+8%)	8mo	$585,000	$443	53
540 Pelton Ave	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,258 (+3%)	9mo	$675,000	$537	52
18 Cottage Pl	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (+7%)	7mo	$380,000	$292	43
7 Westbury Ave	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,090 (-11%)	0mo	$742,500	$681	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,896
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $37,480
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10310

• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,912 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,304/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,245

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $668	-5% $597	+0% $527	+5% $456	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $297	-5% $412	+0% $527	+5% $642	+10% $757
Rate	-1.0pp $653	-0.5pp $590	base $527	+0.5pp $462	+1.0pp $396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Tompkins Ct Staten Island, NY	3.0	1.0	1105	$3,300	$2.99	26d	1	0.32mi
479 Clove Rd Unit 2FL Staten Island, NY	3.0	1.5	1400	$3,400	$2.43	26d	1	0.57mi
65 Bard Ave Staten Island, NY	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,950	$2.11	26d	1	0.70mi
1288 Forest Ave Unit 2 Staten Island, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$3,200	$3.20	19d	1	1.07mi
105 Evergreen St Unit 2 Bayonne, NJ	3.0	1.0	800	$2,600	$3.25	26d	1	1.15mi
57 Silver St Unit 2 Bayonne, NJ	4.0	1.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	7d	1	1.18mi
73 Newman Ave Unit 3 Bayonne, NJ	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	26d	1	1.21mi
73 Newman Ave Unit 3 Bayonne, NJ	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	9d	1	1.21mi
73 Newman Ave Unit 3 Bayonne, NJ	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	19d	1	1.21mi
110 Humphrey Ave Unit 2 Bayonne, NJ	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	6d	1	1.35mi
180 W 3rd St Unit 2 Bayonne, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	26d	1	1.43mi
137 John F. Kennedy Blvd Unit 2 Bayonne, NJ	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,650	$2.21	26d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-03
   historical
2. 2026-02-05
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-23
   listed $250,000 Active
4. 2025-10-08
   listed $300,000 Active
5. 2015-08-25
   historical
6. 2014-08-25
   listed $119,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,304 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,304 · $359/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 52% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,304
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,796
• − Management: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $2,523
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$605
• After-tax cash flow: $5,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• City population: 7,731,280
• Population (ZIP): 25,824

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 482,784 people
• By 2030: 481,831 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 473,159 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 457,242 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 408,029 · -15.5%
• By 2100: 341,459 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 19% Two or more races 14% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 6% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.8) · D 35.1% · R 64.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.7pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -29.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.8 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+16.8 2012: D+0.8 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -266.57%
• Current HPI: 360.2125
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+110.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Pending — BNYMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $250,000 BNYMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-25 Listed $119,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,304 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.