2800 S White Mountain Rd · Show Low, AZ 85901

$68,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 940 sqft · Land public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1997 $73/sqft · 29% below area Est $109k · 37% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bed, 2 bath manufactured home in Timberline RV & MHP in Show Low. Great investment or fixer-upper opportunity surrounded by tall pines. Spacious layout with potential to update and add value. Land lease is $669/month. Park application and approval required.

Key facts

• New appliances
• Conveniently located
• Built 1997

Tags

• NEW APPLIANCES
• UNIQUE SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• PEACEFUL SCENIC SETTING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $791 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $474 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 38% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $53k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.51%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,657
• List price: $68,500
• Delta: -63.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $39,325
• Equity at exit: $10,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $99,241
• Equity at exit: $5,923

Cash invested: $19,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$359
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $599

Max offer price $68,500

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,125
• Closing costs: $2,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 S White Mountain Rd #84 Show Low, AZ	2.0	2.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	43d	1	0.05mi
2700 S White Mountain Rd #1121 Show Low, AZ	2.0	2.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	43d	1	0.19mi
2800 S White Mountain Rd Unit 83 Show Low, AZ	2.0	1.5	840	$1,600	$1.90	43d	1	0.20mi
2600 S White Mountain Rd Show Low, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,750	$1.79	43d	1	0.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $68,500 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $68,500 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   remarks 441-char remark
4. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on marketlisting id $68,500 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $39,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   remarks 419-char remark
8. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on marketlisting id $68,500 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    price $39,900 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    2 bed, 2 bath manufactured home in Timberline RV & MHP in Show Low. Great investment or fixer-upper opportunity surrounded by tall pines. Spacious layout with potential to update and add value. Land lease is $669/month. Park application and approval required.

14. 2026-05-08
    soldstatus $53,000 Closed 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Cute place in the 55+ section of Timberline RV/MFH Park. Great neighbors, quiet. Escape the Heat that is coming in the Valley! Reasonable space rent that includes water and sewer. Centrally located to shopping, restaurants, health care, trails, fishing and all that the White Mtns has to offer. Won't last long at this price. Lot lease 671$ per month upon approval from park.

15. 2026-04-29
    price $42,500 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    2 bed, 2 bath manufactured home in Timberline RV & MHP in Show Low. Great investment or fixer-upper opportunity surrounded by tall pines. Spacious layout with potential to update and add value. Land lease is $669/month. Park application and approval required.

16. 2026-04-14
    price $45,000 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    2 bed, 2 bath manufactured home in Timberline RV & MHP in Show Low. Great investment or fixer-upper opportunity surrounded by tall pines. Spacious layout with potential to update and add value. Land lease is $669/month. Park application and approval required.

17. 2026-03-19
    listed $49,500 Active 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    2 bed, 2 bath manufactured home in Timberline RV & MHP in Show Low. Great investment or fixer-upper opportunity surrounded by tall pines. Spacious layout with potential to update and add value. Land lease is $669/month. Park application and approval required.

18. 2026-03-18
    status Pending 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Cute place in the 55+ section of Timberline RV/MFH Park. Great neighbors, quiet. Escape the Heat that is coming in the Valley! Reasonable space rent that includes water and sewer. Centrally located to shopping, restaurants, health care, trails, fishing and all that the White Mtns has to offer. Won't last long at this price. Lot lease 671$ per month upon approval from park.

19. 2026-03-10
    listed $53,000 Active 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Cute place in the 55+ section of Timberline RV/MFH Park. Great neighbors, quiet. Escape the Heat that is coming in the Valley! Reasonable space rent that includes water and sewer. Centrally located to shopping, restaurants, health care, trails, fishing and all that the White Mtns has to offer. Won't last long at this price. Lot lease 671$ per month upon approval from park.

20. 2026-02-23
    price $110,000
21. 2025-09-19
    price $69,500
22. 2025-08-28
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed
23. 2025-08-21
    status Pending
24. 2025-08-19
    price $75,000
25. 2025-07-30
    price $60,000
26. 2025-07-23
    price $35,000
27. 2025-07-01
    price $40,000
28. 2025-05-23
    listed $55,000 Active
29. 2024-12-27
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed
30. 2024-12-05
    status Pending
31. 2024-11-26
    listed $75,000 Active
32. 2024-10-31
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed
33. 2024-10-16
    status Pending
34. 2024-09-26
    price $77,600
35. 2024-08-09
    price $77,800
36. 2024-07-17
    price $65,000
37. 2024-07-13
    price $78,000
38. 2024-06-27
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed
39. 2024-06-10
    listed $95,000 Active
40. 2024-06-01
    historical
41. 2024-03-28
    price $45,900
42. 2023-10-17
    price $145,000
43. 2023-08-20
    price $155,000
44. 2023-07-25
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed
45. 2023-07-11
    historical
46. 2023-07-07
    listed $165,000 Active
47. 2023-06-17
    listed $62,000 Active
48. 2022-09-23
    price $180,000
49. 2022-08-31
    price $38,500
50. 2022-08-11
    price $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$1,993
• Taxable income: $8,937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,145
• After-tax cash flow: $7,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.4% since first listed

41 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $39,900 WMMLS
• 2026-05-08 Sold (MLS) $53,000 WMMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $42,500 WMMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $45,000 WMMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $49,500 WMMLS
• 2026-03-18 Pending — WMMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $53,000 WMMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $110,000 WMMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $69,500 WMMLS
• 2025-08-28 Sold (MLS) $30,000 WMMLS
• 2025-08-21 Pending — WMMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $75,000 WMMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $60,000 WMMLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $35,000 WMMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $40,000 WMMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $55,000 WMMLS
• 2024-12-27 Sold (MLS) $70,000 WMMLS
• 2024-12-05 Pending — WMMLS
• 2024-11-26 Listed $75,000 WMMLS
• 2024-10-31 Sold (MLS) $70,000 WMMLS
• 2024-10-16 Pending — WMMLS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $77,600 WMMLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $77,800 WMMLS
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $65,000 WMMLS
• 2024-07-13 Price Changed $78,000 WMMLS
• 2024-06-27 Sold (MLS) $115,000 WMMLS
• 2024-06-10 Listed $95,000 WMMLS
• 2024-06-01 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2024-03-28 Price Changed $45,900 WMMLS
• 2023-10-17 Price Changed $145,000 WMMLS
• 2023-08-20 Price Changed $155,000 WMMLS
• 2023-07-25 Sold (MLS) $55,000 WMMLS
• 2023-07-11 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2023-07-07 Listed $165,000 WMMLS
• 2023-06-17 Listed $62,000 WMMLS
• 2022-09-23 Price Changed $180,000 WMMLS
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $38,500 WMMLS
• 2022-08-11 Price Changed $45,000 WMMLS
• 2021-09-29 Sold (MLS) $79,900 WMMLS
• 2019-07-19 Sold (MLS) $50,900 WMMLS
• 2018-05-29 Sold (MLS) $46,600 WMMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,326 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.