43 Gainscott Ln · Burlington, NJ 08046

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,614 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1965 6,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL 4 Bedroom 2 Bathroom cape cod. Property is being sold completely as is where is. Buyer is responsible for the township CO. Must obtain COC prior to closing at the buyers expense.

Key facts

• 6,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 4.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#89 in NJ, #2,359 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Willingboro Public School District (suburban): math 5% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #433 of 472 in NJ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.09%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,922
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
78 Gainscott Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,705 (+6%)	2mo	$379,999	$223	83
14 Mayapple Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,624 (+1%)	0mo	$332,999	$205	79
86 E River Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,573 (-2%)	3mo	$265,000	$168	74
67 Medford Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (+1%)	1mo	$380,000	$234	63
86 Medford Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,737 (+8%)	0mo	$271,000	$156	60
41 Eastgate Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,438 (-11%)	2mo	$385,000	$268	48
47 Holstone Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,843 (+14%)	1mo	$350,000	$190	46
42 Maplewick Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,384 (-14%)	3mo	$350,000	$253	45
534 Charleston Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,444 (-10%)	2mo	$407,000	$282	43
15 Hampton Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,843 (+14%)	1mo	$350,000	$190	42
71 Harrington Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,843 (+14%)	2mo	$375,000	$203	42
168 Millbrook Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,372 (-15%)	1mo	$310,000	$226	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $52,696
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $150,787
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08046

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,426 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$446 /mo · $5,352/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$719
• Net cashflow: $1,270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,819

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Elridge Ln Willingboro, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,650	$1.96	1d	1	0.24mi
12 Holbrook Ln Willingboro, NJ	5.0	2.0	2100	$3,750	$1.79	14d	1	0.39mi
41 Messenger Ln Willingboro, NJ	5.0	2.0	1497	$3,500	$2.34	5d	1	0.47mi
10 Melville Ln Willingboro, NJ	4.0	2.5	1797	$3,000	$1.67	14d	1	0.66mi
48 Marboro Ln Willingboro, NJ	4.0	2.0	1497	$3,995	$2.67	2d	1	0.74mi
89 Hampshire Ln Willingboro, NJ	4.0	2.0	1562	$3,400	$2.18	10d	1	0.86mi
1 Mystic Way Willingboro, NJ	4.0	2.5	1952	$3,000	$1.54	5d	1	0.89mi
5 Burgess Ln Willingboro, NJ	5.0	2.0	1864	$4,500	$2.41	1d	1	0.92mi
4 Elliot Ln Westampton, NJ	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,900	$1.93	1d	1	1.06mi
17 Bonnie Ln Willingboro, NJ	4.0	2.5	1797	$2,890	$1.61	24d	1	1.06mi
34 Hopkins Ln Willingboro, NJ	3.0	2.0	1696	$3,200	$1.89	1d	1	1.08mi
46 Beaverdale Ln Willingboro, NJ	5.0	2.0	1650	$3,450	$2.09	14d	1	1.20mi
29 Hinsdale Ln Willingboro, NJ	4.0	2.0	1570	$3,750	$2.39	1d	1	1.23mi
62 Sharpless Blvd Westampton, NJ	3.0	1.5	1490	$2,275	$1.53	1d	1	1.24mi
61 Pennant Ln Willingboro, NJ	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,800	$2.02	1d	1	1.24mi
51 Peacock Ln Willingboro, NJ	4.0	2.0	1372	$2,550	$1.86	1d	1	1.39mi
48 Sandstone Ln Willingboro, NJ	4.0	2.0	1372	$2,700	$1.97	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-24
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-11-19
   price $175,000
4. 2025-11-19
   price $225,000
5. 2025-11-18
   listed $175,000 Active
6. 2025-11-18
   historical $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,352 · $446/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,352 · $446/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,352
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,289
• − Management: −$3,289
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $13,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,218
• After-tax cash flow: $12,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willingboro Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3418000
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $67,064
• Composite: 17.37/100
• National rank: #9074
• State rank: #433 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2359

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Burlington County · 323,710 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 31,981
• Household income: $98,178
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 342.0

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% White 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 4% Romanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -273.52%
• Current HPI: 348.3441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-24 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-18 Coming Soon $175,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,352 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.