650 Fairway Dr · Hernando, MS 38632

$385,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1997 1.52 ac lot $140/sqft · 10% above area Est $369k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional 4 Bedroom, 3 Bath One-Owner Home Perfectly Positioned on 1.5 Acres with Panoramic Views of the 18th Fairway in Hernando Golf & Racquet Club ~ Beautifully Maintained Grounds with Mature Trees & Landscaping ~ Charming Covered Front Porch ~ Entry Foyer ~ Thoughtfully Designed Open Layout ~ Generous Great Room Featuring a Corner Fireplace ~ Kitchen is Equipped with Extensive Cabinetry & Countertop Space, Stainless Steel Appliances Including Double Ovens, Expansive Island with Breakfast Bar Seating & Pantry ~ Cozy Breakfast Area ~ All Main Living Areas Showcase Incredible Golf Course Views ~ Formal Dining Room for Entertaining ~ Spacious Primary Suite Offers a Private Salon Bath Complete with Double Vanity, Makeup Area, Jetted Tub, Separate Walk-In Shower & Walk-In Closet ~ Main Floor Includes 3 Additional Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, and a Laundry/Mud Room Conveniently Located Off the 2 Car Garage ~ Upstairs Bonus Room Provides an Additional 366 Square Feet (Not Included in Total SF) ~ Large Rear Deck Overlooks the Fairway, Creating the Perfect Space for Outdoor Entertaining, with Access from Both the Great Room and Primary Suite ~ No HOA ~ Peaceful Community Ponds ~ Optional Membership Opportunities at Hernando Golf & Racquet Club Include Access to Dining, Tennis & Pickleball Courts, Swimming Pool & an 18-Hole Golf Course

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Panoramic views
• Open layout

Tags

• 1.5 ACRES
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• MATURE TREES
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN LAYOUT
• CORNER FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#44 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,943 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,115
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: 4.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
723 Fairway Trl	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,700 (-2%)	0mo	$329,000	$122	84
203 Fairway Trace Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,650 (-4%)	2mo	$339,900	$128	66
457 Fairway Oaks Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,441 (-11%)	4mo	$349,900	$143	58
1215 S Augusta Dr	0.58mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,800 (+2%)	12mo	$340,000	$121	56
208 Elkwood Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,494 (-9%)	1mo	$374,750	$150	52
1081 Augusta Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,500 (-9%)	14mo	$379,000	$152	50
731 Fairways Trl	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,376 (-14%)	22mo	$339,000	$143	46
762 Madison Cir	0.43mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,066 (+11%)	12mo	$390,000	$127	46
53 W Pebble Creek Cv	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,417 (-12%)	13mo	$345,000	$143	36
576 Rowan Oak Pl	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,343 (-15%)	8mo	$389,000	$166	35
762 Bending Oak N	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,412 (-12%)	20mo	$357,500	$148	32
35 Shady Lane Cv	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,390 (-13%)	17mo	$349,000	$146	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-77,546
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-109,776
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38632

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,979 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,288/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,106

Max offer price $367,399

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $9	+0% $-100	+5% $-209	+10% $-318
Rent	-10% $-335	-5% $-217	+0% $-100	+5% $18	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $-2	base $-100	+0.5pp $-199	+1.0pp $-301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
814 Byhalia Rd Hernando, MS	4.0	3.0	2531	$2,400	$0.95	3d	1	0.39mi
272 Fairway Trace Dr Lot $3800 Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	2000	$3,800	$1.90	45d	1	0.49mi
52 Forked Creek Pkwy Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	2300	$2,340	$1.02	45d	1	0.61mi
89 Shady Lane Cv E Hernando, MS	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,650	$1.06	13d	1	0.77mi
237 US-51 Hernando, MS	4.0	4.0	2986	$3,400	$1.14	45d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $385,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $385,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $385,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $385,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $385,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $385,000 1379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1379 chars)

    Exceptional 4 Bedroom, 3 Bath One-Owner Home Perfectly Positioned on 1.5 Acres with Panoramic Views of the 18th Fairway in Hernando Golf & Racquet Club ~ Beautifully Maintained Grounds with Mature Trees & Landscaping ~ Charming Covered Front Porch ~ Entry Foyer ~ Thoughtfully Designed Open Layout ~ Generous Great Room Featuring a Corner Fireplace ~ Kitchen is Equipped with Extensive Cabinetry & Countertop Space, Stainless Steel Appliances Including Double Ovens, Expansive Island with Breakfast Bar Seating & Pantry ~ Cozy Breakfast Area ~ All Main Living Areas Showcase Incredible Golf Course Views ~ Formal Dining Room for Entertaining ~ Spacious Primary Suite Offers a Private Salon Bath Complete with Double Vanity, Makeup Area, Jetted Tub, Separate Walk-In Shower & Walk-In Closet ~ Main Floor Includes 3 Additional Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, and a Laundry/Mud Room Conveniently Located Off the 2 Car Garage ~ Upstairs Bonus Room Provides an Additional 366 Square Feet (Not Included in Total SF) ~ Large Rear Deck Overlooks the Fairway, Creating the Perfect Space for Outdoor Entertaining, with Access from Both the Great Room and Primary Suite ~ No HOA ~ Peaceful Community Ponds ~ Optional Membership Opportunities at Hernando Golf & Racquet Club Include Access to Dining, Tennis & Pickleball Courts, Swimming Pool & an 18-Hole Golf Course

16. 2026-03-31
    listed $399,900 Active 1379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1379 chars)

    Exceptional 4 Bedroom, 3 Bath One-Owner Home Perfectly Positioned on 1.5 Acres with Panoramic Views of the 18th Fairway in Hernando Golf & Racquet Club ~ Beautifully Maintained Grounds with Mature Trees & Landscaping ~ Charming Covered Front Porch ~ Entry Foyer ~ Thoughtfully Designed Open Layout ~ Generous Great Room Featuring a Corner Fireplace ~ Kitchen is Equipped with Extensive Cabinetry & Countertop Space, Stainless Steel Appliances Including Double Ovens, Expansive Island with Breakfast Bar Seating & Pantry ~ Cozy Breakfast Area ~ All Main Living Areas Showcase Incredible Golf Course Views ~ Formal Dining Room for Entertaining ~ Spacious Primary Suite Offers a Private Salon Bath Complete with Double Vanity, Makeup Area, Jetted Tub, Separate Walk-In Shower & Walk-In Closet ~ Main Floor Includes 3 Additional Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, and a Laundry/Mud Room Conveniently Located Off the 2 Car Garage ~ Upstairs Bonus Room Provides an Additional 366 Square Feet (Not Included in Total SF) ~ Large Rear Deck Overlooks the Fairway, Creating the Perfect Space for Outdoor Entertaining, with Access from Both the Great Room and Primary Suite ~ No HOA ~ Peaceful Community Ponds ~ Optional Membership Opportunities at Hernando Golf & Racquet Club Include Access to Dining, Tennis & Pickleball Courts, Swimming Pool & an 18-Hole Golf Course

17. 2025-08-13
    historical
18. 2025-07-03
    price $399,900
19. 2025-05-28
    listed $419,900 Active
20. 2025-04-07
    status Pending
21. 2025-04-06
    historical
22. 2025-03-31
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2025-03-31
    status Active
24. 2025-03-31
    status Pending
25. 2025-02-19
    listed $419,000 Active
26. 2020-03-02
    historical
27. 2019-10-22
    listed $299,900
28. 2019-10-11
    historical
29. 2019-08-11
    listed $312,500
30. 1997-04-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,288 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,288 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$3,288
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,860
• − Management: −$2,860
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$7,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,907
• After-tax cash flow: $711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 31,374
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 31,374
• Household income: $93,583
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.49%
• Current HPI: 176.8843
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+23.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $385,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-31 Listed $399,900 MLSU
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $399,900 MLSU
• 2025-05-28 Listed $419,900 MLSU
• 2025-04-07 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-04-06 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-03-31 Contingent — MLSU
• 2025-03-31 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-03-31 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-02-19 Listed $419,000 MLSU
• 2020-03-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2019-10-22 Listed $299,900 MLSU
• 2019-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2019-08-11 Listed $312,500 MLSU
• 1997-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,288 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.