1730 Ballard Dr · Paris, TX 75460

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

5,837 sqft lot Est $103k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 3 bedroom 2 bath brick with fenced in back yard. Investor special or first time home buyer! You can OWN cheaper than renting! Bring your furniture and decorate as you make this little home yours! Conveniently located between Loop 286 and 20th NE so easy access to restaurants, businesses and industry! PARIS ISD

Key facts

• 5,837 sq ft lot
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential single-family; Parcel number 11234; Subdivision: Ella Kay Add
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built not provided
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Grassed vegetation; Easements for utilities; Acreage-style lot (less than 0.5 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Built-in cabinets; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Window coverings; One living area; One dining area; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($119/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Paris ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #521 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Aikin El (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 937 students, 74% FRL); Crockett Int (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 560 students, 79% FRL); Paris H S (math 60% / reading 51%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 934 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,757 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,884
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1025 17th St NE	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (-4%)	18mo	$99,000	$89	47
2550 Briarwood Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+10%)	16mo	$195,000	$153	47
1240 E Hickory St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-12%)	10mo	$69,900	$69	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-21,877
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-18,166
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75460

• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,077/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $49	+0% $10	+5% $-29	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-87	-5% $-39	+0% $10	+5% $58	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $45	base $10	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
370 29th St NE Paris, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,200	$0.98	45d	1	0.87mi
649 E Price St Paris, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 326-char remark
4. 2026-06-18
   listed $139,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,077 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$467/yr (+$39/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,077
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,178
• − Management: −$1,178
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$2,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$535
• After-tax cash flow: $653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834290
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,515
• Composite: 29.83/100
• National rank: #6419
• State rank: #521 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paris

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #984
• US rank: #17535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, TX
• County: Lamar County · 23,426 people
• City population: 23,426
• Metro: Paris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,426
• Household income: $46,473
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1355.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.50%
• Current HPI: 145.3511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paris, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2018-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,077 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.