9535 Maneado Rd · San Perlita, TX 78569

$39,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1999 1.66 ac lot $42/sqft · at area comps Est $40k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dreaming of space, peace, and country living? These 1.66 acres—perfectly located outside the city limits for added privacy and tranquility. Whether you're looking to retire in a quiet “ranchito”-style setting or searching for the perfect weekend getaway, this property offers the best of both worlds. Enjoy wide open space, fresh air, and the freedom to make it your own.

Key facts

• 1.66 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($934 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,413 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Lyford CISD (town): math 17% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #750 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Willacy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Willacy County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.70%
• DSCR: 3.12
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,900
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9535 Maneado Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	952 (0%)	0mo	$39,900	$42	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $45,509
• Equity at exit: $31,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.95×
• Total profit: $111,119
• Equity at exit: $62,568

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78569

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $812/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $372

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $455	+0% $444	+5% $433	+10% $422
Rent	-10% $370	-5% $407	+0% $444	+5% $481	+10% $518
Rate	-1.0pp $464	-0.5pp $454	base $444	+0.5pp $434	+1.0pp $423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 389-char remark

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Dreaming of space, peace, and country living? These 1.66 acres—perfectly located outside the city limits for added privacy and tranquility. Whether you're looking to retire in a quiet “ranchito”-style setting or searching for the perfect weekend getaway, this property offers the best of both worlds. Enjoy wide open space, fresh air, and the freedom to make it your own.

2. 2026-05-03
   price $39,900
3. 2026-04-29
   price $39,900 389-char remark

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Dreaming of space, peace, and country living? These 1.66 acres—perfectly located outside the city limits for added privacy and tranquility. Whether you're looking to retire in a quiet “ranchito”-style setting or searching for the perfect weekend getaway, this property offers the best of both worlds. Enjoy wide open space, fresh air, and the freedom to make it your own.

4. 2026-03-30
   listed $44,900 Active 389-char remark

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Dreaming of space, peace, and country living? These 1.66 acres—perfectly located outside the city limits for added privacy and tranquility. Whether you're looking to retire in a quiet “ranchito”-style setting or searching for the perfect weekend getaway, this property offers the best of both worlds. Enjoy wide open space, fresh air, and the freedom to make it your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 29% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$812
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$896
• − Management: −$896
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $5,005
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $4,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyford CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828620
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $28,509
• Composite: 19.12/100
• National rank: #8835
• State rank: #750 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Perlita

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1413
• US rank: #24191

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 449
• Population (ZIP): 4,079

Population outlook (Willacy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,429 people
• By 2030: 21,075 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 20,318 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 19,489 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 16,758 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 12,735 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 40% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 66%

Political lean MEDSL · Willacy

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 51.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.8pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+12.0 2016: D+36.9 2012: D+43.1 2008: D+39.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Current HPI: 92.8227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $39,900 RGVMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $39,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $44,900 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $812 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.