Residence 2282 Plan · Sacramento, CA 95835

$646,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,282 sqft · SingleFamily · 417 Days on market

↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home features a clean and modern design. The Great Room and owner's suite both overlook the inviting California Room, ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a multifunctional center island and brand-new appliances near an elegant dining room, while the three secondary bedrooms are perfectly proportioned near the front of the home.

Key facts

• Elegant dining room
• California room
• Brand-new appliances

Tags

• CALIFORNIA ROOM
• MULTIFUNCTIONAL CENTER ISLAND
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• ELEGANT DINING ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $646,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $771,855.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $647k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (42.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (47.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (47.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Regency Park Elementary (723 students, 69% FRL); Norwood Junior High (406 students, 83% FRL); Rio Linda High (1,596 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools at 78% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $76k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $71k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$122k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 417 days — a 12% lower offer ($569k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $340,911 (47.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 417 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.66%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 18.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $771,855
• List price: $646,990
• Delta: -16.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1476 Jeannie Way	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,304 (+1%)	1mo	$630,000	$273	77
3854 Watermist Way	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,307 (+1%)	2mo	$649,500	$282	76
5955 Fallstaff St	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,282 (0%)	2mo	$680,000	$298	73
8150 Gardini Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,175 (-5%)	2mo	$787,515	$362	70
5649 Harveston Way	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,223 (-3%)	2mo	$655,000	$295	67
3930 Waterleaf Ave	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,150 (-6%)	2mo	$767,000	$357	67
5913 Vantage St	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,150 (-6%)	2mo	$665,000	$309	64
5737 Harveston Way	0.59mi	4/3.5	2,291 (+0%)	8mo	$650,000	$284	61
1472 Jeannie Way	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-11%)	1mo	$600,000	$295	60
5743 Littlestone St	0.64mi	4/3.5	2,362 (+4%)	5mo	$649,000	$275	56
3733 Rynders Way	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,002 (-12%)	8mo	$526,000	$263	41
5907 Quilter St	0.52mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,620 (+15%)	10mo	$640,000	$244	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $196,315
• Equity at exit: $649,915

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $697,548
• Equity at exit: $1,355,877

Cash invested: $216,119 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,409 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$965 /mo · $11,578/yr
• Insurance: −$322
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $-2,766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,911

Max offer price $371,592

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,233	-5% $-2,499	+0% $-2,766	+5% $-3,033	+10% $-3,300
Rent	-10% $-3,035	-5% $-2,901	+0% $-2,766	+5% $-2,631	+10% $-2,497
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,377	-0.5pp $-2,570	base $-2,766	+0.5pp $-2,966	+1.0pp $-3,170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $192,964
• Closing costs: $23,156
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4096 Azul Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	3180	$2,800	$0.88	20d	1	0.17mi
5342 Liberty Ship Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	4.0	2776	$3,650	$1.31	0d	1	0.23mi
4236 Bellwether Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2282	$3,300	$1.45	0d	1	0.49mi
5948 Rosalee St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2740	$3,095	$1.13	45d	1	0.51mi
3606 Damora Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2362	$3,900	$1.65	45d	1	0.56mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	45d	1	0.66mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	4d	1	0.72mi
5421 Shennecock Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2561	$3,000	$1.17	12d	1	0.82mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	0d	1	0.90mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	13d	1	0.96mi
789 Greg Thatch Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,990	$1.50	4d	1	0.97mi
5301 E Commerce Way #34103 Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1774	$3,000	$1.69	0d	1	0.97mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	0d	1	1.11mi
5663 Lolet Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2630	$3,295	$1.25	0d	1	1.12mi
271 Vista Cove Cir Sacramento, CA	5.0	3.0	2900	$3,595	$1.24	5d	1	1.23mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	45d	1	1.25mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	45d	1	1.28mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	4d	1	1.40mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $646,990 Active 417 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $646,990 Active 414 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $646,990 Active 413 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $681,990 Active 413 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $681,990 Active 412 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $681,990 Active 411 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $681,990 Active 409 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $681,990 Active 408 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $681,990 Active 405 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $681,990 Active 404 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $681,990 Active 403 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $681,990 Active 399 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $681,990 Active 398 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $681,990 Active 397 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $681,990 Active 396 DOM
16. 2025-06-21
    price $681,990 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    This new single-level home features a clean and modern design. The Great Room and owner's suite both overlook the inviting California Room, ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a multifunctional center island and brand-new appliances near an elegant dining room, while the three secondary bedrooms are perfectly proportioned near the front of the home.

17. 2025-05-02
    price $729,986 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    This new single-level home features a clean and modern design. The Great Room and owner's suite both overlook the inviting California Room, ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a multifunctional center island and brand-new appliances near an elegant dining room, while the three secondary bedrooms are perfectly proportioned near the front of the home.

18. 2025-04-30
    listed $728,486 Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    This new single-level home features a clean and modern design. The Great Room and owner's suite both overlook the inviting California Room, ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a multifunctional center island and brand-new appliances near an elegant dining room, while the three secondary bedrooms are perfectly proportioned near the front of the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,236
• − Property taxes: −$11,578
• − Insurance: −$5,362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,273
• − Management: −$3,273
• − Depreciation: −$22,454
• Taxable loss: −$48,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,584
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $681,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $729,986 Zillow
• 2025-04-30 Listed $728,486 Zillow