Is 4913 Kestis Ln in San Antonio, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 5.9% cap rate and $-107/mo modeled cash flow at a $319,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 4913 Kestis Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 5.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,695/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 46.17

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +11.5/30.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.4/10.0
DSCR +3.4/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Schools +2.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$319,990

4913 Kestis Ln · San Antonio, TX 78263

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,242 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $143/sqft · 26% below area Est $433k · 26% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

The Lynn Plan combines spacious living with elegant design across 2,242 square feet. This beautifully crafted two-story home features 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, along with a grand open-to-above entrance that makes a stunning first impression. The open-concept layout creates a bright and seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas-perfect for entertaining and everyday comfort. The private primary suite is a standout feature, offering two separate closets for added convenience and storage. With modern style and plenty of space to fit your lifestyle, The Lynn is designed to feel like home from the moment you walk in.

Key facts

Two separate closets
Open concept layout
4,791 sq ft lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (4.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (15.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $270k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Oak Crest El (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 674 students, 72% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 367 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,500 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.84% ✗
Cap rate: 5.89%
Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
DSCR: 0.94
GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $432,704
List price: $319,990
Delta: -26.05%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4947 Hawkwell Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,198 (-2%)	5mo	$325,740	$148	81
8408 Ingress Ave	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-2%)	4mo	$304,990	$139	80
4940 Hawkwell Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (+4%)	5mo	$334,524	$143	78
4727 Fireweed Ct	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-2%)	5mo	$304,990	$139	78
5030 Hastings Way	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (+4%)	5mo	$326,525	$140	78
4707 Kinsley Way	0.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-2%)	8mo	$314,990	$144	77
8302 Ingress	0.22mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (+4%)	1mo	$384,990	$165	76
8307 Ingress Ave	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-2%)	10mo	$271,100	$124	76
4948 Hawkwell Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (+4%)	9mo	$338,820	$145	75
8429 Rocket Vw	0.21mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,013 (-10%)	0mo	$349,990	$174	68
5011 Bonniecrest	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,125 (-5%)	10mo	$475,000	$224	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -18.6%
Equity multiple: 0.35×
Total profit: $-58,632
Equity at exit: $47,712

10-year hold

IRR: -11.0%
Equity multiple: 0.33×
Total profit: $-59,630
Equity at exit: $27,667

Cash invested: $89,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 50 active · 8 under contract
Months of supply: 33.3 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $349,990 ($159/sqft)
Median days on market: 97 d
This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +21.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78263

Home prices YoY: -8.1%
Active inventory: 367
Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,695 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
Insurance: −$133
HOA: −$25
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,831

Max offer price $304,459

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $3	+0% $-107	+5% $-218	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-214	+0% $-107	+5% $-1	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $-26	base $-107	+0.5pp $-190	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $79,998
Closing costs: $9,600
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5330 Kody Crk San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2251	$2,695	$1.20	9d	1	0.88mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $300 annuallyCommunity amenities include pool and park/playground

Exterior

Parking: 2-car garage
Utilities: Water service provided by SAWSSewer provided by SAWSGas supplied by CPSElectricity supplied by CPSWater system on siteHERS rated and Energy Star certifiedEvery Furrow irrigation control (water-efficient feature)
Home design: Brick and siding exteriorFront of home faces eastNew construction by Coventry HomesAccessible/adaptive homeBathroom and bedroom on first floor
Construction: Slab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features: Covered patioPrivacy fenceSprinkler systemDouble-pane windowsGuttersStreet paved with curbs and sidewalksFire hydrant within 500 ftCity street

Interior

Kitchen: Self-cleaning ovenMicrowaveStove/Range (gas)DishwasherDisposalIce maker connection
Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 13 x 11Bedroom 3: 12 x 12Bedroom 4: 12 x 11Bedroom 5: 12 x 12Master bedroom: 14 x 14
Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsMaster bath with shower only and double vanity (11 x 5)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
Interior features: Ceiling fans throughoutSeparate dining roomIsland kitchenWalk-in pantryGame roomUtility room insideHigh ceilingsOpen floor planLaundry on lower levelAttic access (pull-down stairs) with radiant barrier deckingIn-wall pest controlWater softener plumbingPrivate garbage serviceAll window coverings remainGarage door openerVent fan
Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionUtility room 7 x 8

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $319,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $319,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $319,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $319,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $319,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $319,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $319,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $319,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $319,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $319,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $319,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $319,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $319,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $319,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $319,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $319,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $319,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $319,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $319,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $319,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $319,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $319,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $319,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $319,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $319,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $319,990 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $319,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-04

status $319,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $319,990 Price Change 52 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $319,990 Price Change 51 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $319,990 Price Change 50 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $319,990 Price Change 49 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $319,990 Price Change 48 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $319,990 Price Change 47 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $319,990 Price Change 46 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $319,990 Price Change 45 DOM
2026-06-24

pricestatusdays on market $319,990 Price Change 43 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $323,690 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $323,690 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $323,690 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $323,690 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $323,690 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $323,690 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $323,690 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $323,690 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $323,690 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $323,690 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $323,690 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $323,690 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $323,690 Active 21 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $32,340
− Mortgage interest: −$17,924
− Property taxes: −$4,800
− Insurance: −$1,600
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,587
− Management: −$2,587
− HOA: −$300
− Depreciation: −$9,309
Taxable loss: −$6,767

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,624
After-tax cash flow: $336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,210–$33,630 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good exterior, interior, and systems. The home has a good foundation and structure. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
Both Updating the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can enhance the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and functionality, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Crest El F TX #2,525/4,322 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle East Central Heritage Middle F TX #1,478/1,662 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High East Central H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: East Central ISD
NCES district ID: 4817850
Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $53,941
Composite: 18.67/100
National rank: #8887
State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — San Antonio

Score: 80/100
State rank: #31
US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Bexar · 2,336,851 people
City population: 1,806,925
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 4,514
Household income: $81,793
Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 43% Two or more races 24% Black 10%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -28.29%
Current HPI: 322.4738
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-12 Listed $323,690 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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