1272 A L Gill Dr · El Paso, TX 79936

$299,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,593 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2002 9,350 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 9,350 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle, pitched roof; Building area approximately 2593
• Exterior features: Walled backyard; Back yard access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Fireplaces: 1 fireplace
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Forced air heating; Hot water heating; Refrigerated cooling
• Interior features: Multiple living areas

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($264/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Loma Verde (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 794 students, 67% FRL); Americas H S (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,352 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 237 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,909/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 2856% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,929 (2.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.32%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-49,661
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-51,941
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79936

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,909 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$584 /mo · $7,005/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,881

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $107	+0% $22	+5% $-63	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-93	+0% $22	+5% $137	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $98	base $22	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12267 Bronco Buster Ln El Paso, TX	5.0	3.0	3196	$3,900	$1.22	45d	1	0.32mi
12225 Rathmore Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	3.0	2652	$2,675	$1.01	5d	1	1.00mi
1126 Ismael Robels Way El Paso, TX	5.0	4.0	2866	$2,945	$1.03	16d	1	1.35mi
12836 Carefree Ave , TX	5.0	3.0	2180	$2,400	$1.10	25d	1	1.37mi
905 Cottage Pl El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1912	$2,200	$1.15	16d	1	1.40mi
12664 Azulejos St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	2006	$2,100	$1.05	16d	1	1.43mi
12616 Christian Isaiah Ct El Paso, TX	4.0	3.0	2251	$1,950	$0.87	16d	1	1.45mi
828 Durham Way Horizon City, TX	4.0	3.0	2339	$3,856	$1.65	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $299,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,005 · $584/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,005 · $584/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$7,005
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,793
• − Management: −$2,793
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,109
• After-tax cash flow: $1,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Paso

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #1375

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Paso, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 630,223
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 102,991
• Household income: $67,198
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2856.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 40% White 9% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 82% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 32% English-only · Spanish 66%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.55%
• Current HPI: 247.851
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+112.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $299,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $299,000 GEPARMLS
• 2020-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-15 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2020-05-15 Price Changed $225,000 GEPARMLS
• 2020-03-20 Price Changed $235,000 GEPARMLS
• 2019-11-18 Listed $245,000 GEPARMLS
• 2002-02-21 Listed $140,450 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,005 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.