466 Sara Ave · Hurlburt Field, FL 32569

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 191 Days on market

Built 1993 7,000 sqft lot $199/sqft · 31% below area Est $288k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REO VA Property. Just minutes from Hurlburt Field and the beaches, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Move-In Ready: Well-maintained bank foreclosure in good condition. Outdoor Appeal: Fully fenced front yard and a private backyard oasis. Master Retreat: Direct access from the master bedroom to an open patio—perfect for relaxing outdoors. Bonus Space: Includes a 1-car garage for storage or parking. This home combines affordability with location, making it an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, military families, or anyone seeking a coastal lifestyle.

Key facts

• Open patio
• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• FULLY FENCED FRONT YARD
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• OPEN PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.6% in Hurlburt Field — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.52%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,032
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -30.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 S Lake Ave	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,040 (+4%)	5mo	$240,000	$231	83
478 Asa Marie Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+11%)	8mo	$280,000	$252	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,387
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,131
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32569

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,117 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,164/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,555

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
427 Bristol Cove Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,000	$1.45	44d	1	0.19mi
427 Bristol Cove Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,850	$1.34	13d	1	0.19mi
46 Kathleen Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	21d	1	0.59mi
20 Stowe Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,000	$1.52	21d	1	0.71mi
806 Boulevard de Lorleans Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	44d	1	1.07mi
806 Boulevard de Lorleans Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	21d	1	1.07mi
324 Michael Cir Mary Esther, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	1.34mi
116 Dolphin Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	44d	1	1.38mi
208 Squirrel Haven Rd Unit A Mary Esther, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $199,900 Pending 191 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 697-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    price $199,900 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 177 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 176 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 175 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $209,900 Active 174 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $219,000 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    REO VA Property. Just minutes from Hurlburt Field and the beaches, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Move-In Ready: Well-maintained bank foreclosure in good condition. Outdoor Appeal: Fully fenced front yard and a private backyard oasis. Master Retreat: Direct access from the master bedroom to an open patio—perfect for relaxing outdoors. Bonus Space: Includes a 1-car garage for storage or parking. This home combines affordability with location, making it an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, military families, or anyone seeking a coastal lifestyle.

18. 2026-04-22
    price $230,000 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    REO VA Property. Just minutes from Hurlburt Field and the beaches, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Move-In Ready: Well-maintained bank foreclosure in good condition. Outdoor Appeal: Fully fenced front yard and a private backyard oasis. Master Retreat: Direct access from the master bedroom to an open patio—perfect for relaxing outdoors. Bonus Space: Includes a 1-car garage for storage or parking. This home combines affordability with location, making it an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, military families, or anyone seeking a coastal lifestyle.

19. 2026-03-03
    price $255,000 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    REO VA Property. Just minutes from Hurlburt Field and the beaches, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Move-In Ready: Well-maintained bank foreclosure in good condition. Outdoor Appeal: Fully fenced front yard and a private backyard oasis. Master Retreat: Direct access from the master bedroom to an open patio—perfect for relaxing outdoors. Bonus Space: Includes a 1-car garage for storage or parking. This home combines affordability with location, making it an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, military families, or anyone seeking a coastal lifestyle.

20. 2026-03-03
    price $280,000 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    REO VA Property. Just minutes from Hurlburt Field and the beaches, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Move-In Ready: Well-maintained bank foreclosure in good condition. Outdoor Appeal: Fully fenced front yard and a private backyard oasis. Master Retreat: Direct access from the master bedroom to an open patio—perfect for relaxing outdoors. Bonus Space: Includes a 1-car garage for storage or parking. This home combines affordability with location, making it an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, military families, or anyone seeking a coastal lifestyle.

21. 2026-03-03
    price $255,000 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    REO VA Property. Just minutes from Hurlburt Field and the beaches, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Move-In Ready: Well-maintained bank foreclosure in good condition. Outdoor Appeal: Fully fenced front yard and a private backyard oasis. Master Retreat: Direct access from the master bedroom to an open patio—perfect for relaxing outdoors. Bonus Space: Includes a 1-car garage for storage or parking. This home combines affordability with location, making it an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, military families, or anyone seeking a coastal lifestyle.

22. 2025-12-04
    listed $280,000 Active 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    REO VA Property. Just minutes from Hurlburt Field and the beaches, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Move-In Ready: Well-maintained bank foreclosure in good condition. Outdoor Appeal: Fully fenced front yard and a private backyard oasis. Master Retreat: Direct access from the master bedroom to an open patio—perfect for relaxing outdoors. Bonus Space: Includes a 1-car garage for storage or parking. This home combines affordability with location, making it an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, military families, or anyone seeking a coastal lifestyle.

23. 2025-07-20
    listed $205,000 Active
24. 2025-06-12
    price $255,000
25. 2025-05-12
    price $265,000
26. 2025-05-12
    listed $165,000 Active
27. 2018-09-26
    soldstatus $175,000
28. 2018-09-19
    soldstatus $175,000
29. 2018-06-22
    listed $175,000
30. 2007-12-10
    soldstatus $145,000
31. 2007-12-07
    soldstatus $145,000
32. 2007-12-07
    soldstatus $145,000
33. 2007-09-25
    listed $146,000
34. 2007-09-25
    listed $146,000
35. 2007-02-15
    listed $165,000
36. 2006-12-18
    soldstatus $138,000
37. 2006-11-30
    soldstatus $138,000
38. 2006-08-26
    listed $159,900
39. 1993-03-01
    soldstatus $56,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$496/yr (+$41/mo · 42.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,164
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $2,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$519
• After-tax cash flow: $4,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hurlburt Field

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 2,344
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,063
• Household income: $77,718
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.13%
• Current HPI: 269.266
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+287.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $219,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $230,000 ECAR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $255,000 ECAR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $280,000 ECAR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $255,000 ECAR
• 2025-12-04 Listed $280,000 ECAR
• 2025-07-20 Listed $205,000 ECAR
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $255,000 ECAR
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $265,000 ECAR
• 2025-05-12 Listed $165,000 ECAR
• 2018-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-19 Sold (MLS) $175,000 NAMLS
• 2018-06-22 Listed $175,000 NAMLS
• 2007-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2007-12-07 Sold (MLS) $145,000 NAMLS
• 2007-12-07 Sold (MLS) $145,000 ECAR
• 2007-09-25 Listed $146,000 NAMLS
• 2007-09-25 Listed $146,000 ECAR
• 2007-02-15 Listed $165,000 ECAR
• 2006-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2006-11-30 Sold (MLS) $138,000 ECAR
• 2006-08-26 Listed $159,900 ECAR
• 1993-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,164 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.