1300 Whitetail Ave. 144 Plan · Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$205,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 757 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Fort Lupton's Premier All-Age Community with Resort Style Amenities! Presenting the Lonepine model a spacious 4 Bed, 2 Bath home spanning 1525 sqft. This cozy abode features a large vaulted living room ceiling adorned with numerous windows, offering ample natural light throughout the day. Step into the home through the covered front porch entryway, welcoming you into the heart of comfort and convenience. The centerpiece of the home is the expansive eat-in kitchen island, perfect for gatherings and culinary adventures. The primary suite is designed for relaxation and functionality, featuring a linen closet, large walk-in closet, and an ensuite with double sinks and a walk-in shower. Situated on a corner lot, this home offers a unique perspective with the backyard facing west towards the breathtaking Rocky Mountains, providing stunning views and serene sunsets. Immerse yourself in the tranquility of Fort Lupton's Premier All-Age Community, where every day feels like a retreat amidst nature's beauty! Disclaimer: Photos are of a previously built home. Colors and options may vary. Grand Opening Event - June 8th, 2024 Want to see this home in person? Join us for our Grand Opening on June 8th, 2024, from 11:00 AM to 4:00 PM. Tour our stunning homes, enjoy exclusive incentives, enter to win exciting prizes, and indulge in delicious food and fun activities!

Key facts

• Listed 757 days

Tags

• CORNER LOT WITH MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $206k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $206k).
• Recommended offer: $181k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 757 days — a 12% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $181,275 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 757 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.89%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $9,175
• Equity at exit: $30,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $62,897
• Equity at exit: $17,811

Cash invested: $57,679 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80621

• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,647 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,080
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$257 /mo · $3,090/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,802

Max offer price $205,995

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,499
• Closing costs: $6,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Whitetail Ave Fort Lupton, CO	2.0–4.0	2.0	1296	$2,100	$1.62	4d	1	0.07mi
2185 Alyssa St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,925	$1.35	4d	1	0.29mi
2155 Alyssa St Fort Lupton, CO	3.0	2.5	1870	$2,845	$1.52	4d	1	0.31mi
2221 Christina St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$3,235	$1.49	4d	1	0.33mi
2170 Christina St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$3,235	$1.49	4d	1	0.38mi
2130 Christina St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,925	$1.35	4d	1	0.40mi
1653 Wagonwheel Dr Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	3.0	2046	$2,795	$1.37	13d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,995 Active 757 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,995 Active 756 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,995 Active 755 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,995 Active 754 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,995 Active 752 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,995 Active 749 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,995 Active 748 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,995 Active 747 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,995 Active 746 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,995 Active 742 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,995 Active 741 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,995 Active 740 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,995 Active 739 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,995 Active 738 DOM
15. 2024-05-22
    listed $205,995 Active 1382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1382 chars)

    Welcome to Fort Lupton's Premier All-Age Community with Resort Style Amenities! Presenting the Lonepine model a spacious 4 Bed, 2 Bath home spanning 1525 sqft. This cozy abode features a large vaulted living room ceiling adorned with numerous windows, offering ample natural light throughout the day. Step into the home through the covered front porch entryway, welcoming you into the heart of comfort and convenience. The centerpiece of the home is the expansive eat-in kitchen island, perfect for gatherings and culinary adventures. The primary suite is designed for relaxation and functionality, featuring a linen closet, large walk-in closet, and an ensuite with double sinks and a walk-in shower. Situated on a corner lot, this home offers a unique perspective with the backyard facing west towards the breathtaking Rocky Mountains, providing stunning views and serene sunsets. Immerse yourself in the tranquility of Fort Lupton's Premier All-Age Community, where every day feels like a retreat amidst nature's beauty! Disclaimer: Photos are of a previously built home. Colors and options may vary. Grand Opening Event - June 8th, 2024 Want to see this home in person? Join us for our Grand Opening on June 8th, 2024, from 11:00 AM to 4:00 PM. Tour our stunning homes, enjoy exclusive incentives, enter to win exciting prizes, and indulge in delicious food and fun activities!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,539
• − Property taxes: −$3,090
• − Insurance: −$1,030
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,541
• − Management: −$2,541
• − Depreciation: −$5,993
• Taxable income: $5,030
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,207
• After-tax cash flow: $6,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior trim and interior could significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Freshens up the interior and improves comfort
• Both Install new light fixtures — Modernizes the space and improves energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Freshens up the interior and improves comfort ↑
• Both Install new light fixtures — Modernizes the space and improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8
• NCES district ID: 0804020
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,116
• Composite: 18.48/100
• National rank: #8921
• State rank: #74 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Lupton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #11069

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Lupton, CO
• City population: 14,542
• Population (ZIP): 14,542

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.37%
• Current HPI: 285.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-05-22 Listed $205,995 Zillow