28838 Golden Wheat Ct · Houston, TX 77447

$253,672

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $299k · 15% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ramsey Floor Plan - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Listing last modified: 2026-05-26
• Financial info: List price: $253,672

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Spec new-construction home — Ramsey plan; Single-family property
• Construction: 1,736 living area (approx.)
• Exterior features: Address: 28838 Golden Wheat Ct, Hockley, TX 77447

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $254k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,672

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,592
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28803 Golden Wheat Ct	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+2%)	1mo	$275,440	$155	92
16122 Domestic Dove Way	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+2%)	0mo	$250,990	$141	90
16303 Golden Corral Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-5%)	1mo	$332,990	$201	80
16311 Golden Corral Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+1%)	1mo	$326,990	$187	79
16315 Golden Corral Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-5%)	1mo	$318,990	$193	79
28807 Golden Wheat Ct	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,924 (+11%)	1mo	$259,990	$135	78
16307 Golden Corral Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-9%)	1mo	$303,990	$193	67
27242 Wheat Falls Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+10%)	0mo	$281,640	$148	60
16850 Old Wagon Way	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-4%)	1mo	$286,990	$172	59
28518 Golden Hay Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-4%)	1mo	$241,140	$144	59
28538 Golden Hay Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,644 (-5%)	1mo	$291,990	$178	57
28514 Golden Hay Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,644 (-5%)	1mo	$282,990	$172	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-30,738
• Equity at exit: $37,823

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-33,578
• Equity at exit: $21,933

Cash invested: $71,028 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,330
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,805/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,346

Max offer price $253,672

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $461	-5% $373	+0% $286	+5% $198	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $179	+0% $286	+5% $393	+10% $500
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $350	base $286	+0.5pp $220	+1.0pp $153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,418
• Closing costs: $7,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	44d	1	0.19mi
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	44d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $253,672 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $253,672 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $253,672 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $253,672 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $253,672 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $253,672 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $253,672 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $253,672 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $253,672 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 90% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,210
• − Property taxes: −$3,805
• − Insurance: −$1,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,380
• Taxable loss: −$572
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$137
• After-tax cash flow: $3,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story townhouse is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It has a good potential for increasing value through minor cosmetic improvements and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B