457 Water Rd · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$133,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1976 10,019 sqft lot Est $195k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath 1 car garage home, Freshly painted inside and out, New flooring. home located in quiet neighborhood, fully fenced yard.

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Spacious backyard
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• ENCLOSED LANAI
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COZY FIREPLACE
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• POTENTIAL TO RENOVATE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: Completed; Zoning: R1; Living area reported as 1,436 sq ft (building area total 1,906 sq ft); Property listed as unfurnished
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: No HOA association reported; Dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story, single-level; Northeast-facing
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.23-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved public-maintained road access; Lot dimensions approximately 81 x 125

Interior

• Kitchen: Other kitchen appliances (unspecified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Florida room; No additional listed interior features
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.7% in Silver Springs Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emerald Shores Elementary School (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 666 students, 74% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Marion average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 674 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($923 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.17%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,252
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9321 Pine Ln	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,217 (-1%)	22mo	$188,750	$155	70
34 Bahia Court Trak	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,211 (-1%)	17mo	$154,979	$128	63
47 Lake Court Loop	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,151 (-6%)	4mo	$140,000	$122	61
5 Water Pass	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+10%)	10mo	$239,900	$178	59
806 Bahia Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,270 (+3%)	23mo	$261,000	$206	52
11 Spring Lake Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (-4%)	19mo	$199,900	$169	46
10 Bahia Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+13%)	23mo	$220,000	$159	44
9637 Bahia Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+12%)	5mo	$248,000	$180	41
101 Spring Loop	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-6%)	22mo	$140,000	$121	37
517 Bahia Track Ct	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (+13%)	21mo	$150,000	$108	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $51,818
• Equity at exit: $83,355

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $130,378
• Equity at exit: $150,672

Cash invested: $37,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$700
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,761/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,248

Max offer price $133,500

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,375
• Closing costs: $4,005
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
455 Water Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,450	$1.14	14d	1	0.03mi
446 Water Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,425	$1.14	21d	1	0.07mi
478 Water Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,650	$1.34	21d	1	0.13mi
9337 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,765	$1.26	14d	1	0.17mi
54 Pine Trak Unit 104F Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,300	$1.56	21d	1	0.46mi
12 Spring Loop Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	14d	1	0.47mi
60 Bahia Court Trak Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,695	$1.20	21d	1	0.50mi
58 Pine Trak Unit 104D Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,050	$1.26	21d	1	0.50mi
62 Pine Trak Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,250	$1.50	21d	1	0.52mi
708 Bahia Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.60mi
13 Pine Radial Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,795	$1.24	21d	1	0.64mi
544 Silver Crse Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,395	$1.54	14d	1	0.70mi
9649 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,595	$1.24	21d	1	0.79mi
5 Cedar Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,750	$1.64	21d	1	0.80mi
633 Silver Pass Unit B Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,500	$1.40	21d	1	0.81mi
593 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1031	$1,200	$1.16	21d	1	0.82mi
549 Fairways Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,200	$1.12	21d	1	0.87mi
561 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1031	$1,250	$1.21	21d	1	0.88mi
532 Bahia Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1027	$1,300	$1.27	21d	1	0.90mi
553 Fairways Cir Unit B Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,700	$1.30	14d	1	0.91mi
582 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,500	$1.15	21d	1	0.97mi
520 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1027	$1,100	$1.07	21d	1	0.97mi
548 Fairways Cir Unit C102 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	21d	1	0.98mi
510 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	21d	1	0.98mi
576 Fairways Ln Unit M104 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	837	$1,250	$1.49	21d	1	1.02mi
454 Fairways Cir Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	837	$1,200	$1.43	21d	1	1.06mi
454 Fairways Cir Unit B203 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	21d	1	1.06mi
454 Fairways Cir Unit B204 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	837	$1,289	$1.54	21d	1	1.06mi
567 Midway Trak Unit H201 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1029	$1,350	$1.31	14d	1	1.07mi
681 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	21d	1	1.09mi
681 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	14d	1	1.09mi
162 Bahia Terrace Dr Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,375	$1.40	21d	1	1.16mi
7 Pine Run Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,500	$1.05	14d	1	1.19mi
608 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1054	$1,500	$1.42	14d	1	1.21mi
8 Ash Pass Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,650	$1.46	21d	1	1.24mi
43 Bahia Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,475	$1.24	21d	1	1.29mi
43 Water Track Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,799	$1.40	14d	1	1.30mi
2 Ash Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,750	$1.62	14d	1	1.33mi
7455 Midway Ter Unit K Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,249	$1.38	21d	1	1.36mi
7184 Hemlock Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,675	$1.20	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   listed $133,500 Active
3. 2025-09-03
   listed $5,000 Active
4. 2022-03-31
   soldstatus $198,000 Closed 136-char remark

   Show marketing remark (136 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath 1 car garage home, Freshly painted inside and out, New flooring. home located in quiet neighborhood, fully fenced yard.

5. 2022-02-11
   status Pending 136-char remark

   Show marketing remark (136 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath 1 car garage home, Freshly painted inside and out, New flooring. home located in quiet neighborhood, fully fenced yard.

6. 2022-01-27
   price $206,900 136-char remark

   Show marketing remark (136 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath 1 car garage home, Freshly painted inside and out, New flooring. home located in quiet neighborhood, fully fenced yard.

7. 2022-01-10
   listed $209,900 Active 136-char remark

   Show marketing remark (136 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath 1 car garage home, Freshly painted inside and out, New flooring. home located in quiet neighborhood, fully fenced yard.

8. 2021-12-07
   soldstatus $135,000
9. 2021-12-03
   historical
10. 2021-12-02
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed
11. 2021-11-10
    status Pending
12. 2021-11-08
    listed $134,900 Active
13. 1984-04-01
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,761 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,761 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,478
• − Property taxes: −$2,761
• − Insurance: −$668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$3,884
• Taxable income: $1,435
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$344
• After-tax cash flow: $3,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+122.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Listed $133,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Listed $5,000 NFMLS
• 2022-03-31 Sold (MLS) $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-27 Price Changed $206,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-10 Listed $209,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-02 Sold (MLS) $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-08 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,761 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.