5116 Cheshire Dr · Hopewell, VA 23860

$217,950

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1980 0.55 ac lot Est $303k · 28% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunities like this don't announce themselves they reward the investors paying attention. A tri-level with exceptional bones, 2,496 finished square feet, an attached 2-car garage, a finished basement, and a private half-acre lot, all offered as-is in one of the most resilient rental corridors in Virginia. Walk it with your contractor. The structure will impress you. The canvas, kitchen, baths, finishes, mechanicals is exactly what experienced investors look for: a defined scope with a predictable path to a fully repositioned asset. No guesswork. No surprises hiding in the walls. "An unfinished room above the garage is the kind of detail that separates a good deal from a great one f

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Block, concrete, and vinyl siding construction; Composition shingle roof; Below-grade finished area: 480; Above-grade finished area: 1,440; Lot size: 0.551 acres; Year built: Unknown
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer; Zoned R-2

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Full finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.2% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#224 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #16 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 72 units permitted in Prince George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $218k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,767 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.73%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,360
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1618 Old Iron Rd	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,928 (+0%)	10mo	$262,500	$136	69
1408 Old Iron Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,848 (-4%)	8mo	$290,000	$157	59
1900 Butor Rd	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (-5%)	22mo	$288,000	$158	54
4298 Cedar Creek Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,033 (+6%)	9mo	$425,000	$209	53
4009 Robert E Lee Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (-14%)	9mo	$260,000	$158	51
1900 Davis Ln	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,019 (+5%)	9mo	$325,000	$161	50
4022 Jefferson Park Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-2%)	23mo	$249,000	$133	48
4280 Cedar Creek Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,146 (+12%)	20mo	$399,000	$186	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-9,000
• Equity at exit: $32,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $61,980
• Equity at exit: $18,844

Cash invested: $61,026 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23860

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,101/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,783

Max offer price $217,950

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,488
• Closing costs: $6,538
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4001 London Rd North Prince George, VA	3.0	1.5	1414	$2,300	$1.63	10d	1	0.30mi
4001 London Rd North Prince George, VA	3.0	1.5	1414	$2,300	$1.63	2d	1	0.30mi
1700 Dinwiddie Ave Hopewell, VA	4.0	3.0	2334	$2,895	$1.24	44d	1	0.47mi
5000 Owens Way Prince George, VA	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1106	$2,333	$2.11	2d	25	0.53mi
3314 Granby St Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1469	$1,600	$1.09	24d	1	1.00mi
2958 Winston Churchill Dr Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,795	$1.14	24d	1	1.39mi
3568 Perrins Hill Way Prince George, VA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,200	$1.47	2d	1	1.43mi
3200 Saint Charles St Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.5	1272	$1,595	$1.25	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $217,950 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $217,950 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $217,950 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-05-23
   historical $217,950
5. 1987-12-01
   soldstatus $64,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,101 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,101 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 49% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,209
• − Property taxes: −$2,101
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$6,340
• Taxable loss: −$696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$167
• After-tax cash flow: $3,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103090
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,354
• Composite: 61.44/100
• National rank: #759
• State rank: #16 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hopewell

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #7437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hopewell City · 31,404 people
• City population: 31,404
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 31,404
• Household income: $62,141
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1055.0

Population outlook (Prince George County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,946 people
• By 2030: 48,155 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 54,455 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 61,115 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 78,510 · +74.7%
• By 2100: 85,572 · +90.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 42% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.9% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+17.2 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+9.8 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.28%
• Current HPI: 302.6343
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.86%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+237.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Coming Soon $217,950 CVRMLS
• 1987-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,101 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.