2217 Simpson St · Paris, TX 75460

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1945 9,278 sqft lot Est $126k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two bed, one bath home features large living area, dining area, and large back yard!

Key facts

• Large living area
• Dining area
• Large back yard

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• DINING AREA
• LARGE BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Parcel/lot identifiers present; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Audio and video consent for visitors/recording noted
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Individual gas meter; Municipal Utility District: No
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1945; Frame construction; Mixed and shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.213 acre); Subdivision: Stellrose Add; Directions: From Lamar South on 20th, SE; East on Simpson; house on left

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Kitchen approx. 12 x 7; Utility area located in the kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (primary bedroom on first floor); Bedroom approx. 13 x 13 (first floor); Primary bedroom approx. 13 x 11 (first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating with gas jets; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Five total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the kitchen; Individual gas meter

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #521 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.86%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,452
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2430 Culbertson St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (-2%)	7mo	$135,000	$110	75
365 24th St SE	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,278 (+2%)	8mo	$74,900	$59	73
2131 Hubbard St	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,369 (+9%)	4mo	$95,000	$69	73
230 NE 20th	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,328 (+6%)	8mo	$119,500	$90	61
1061 19th St SE	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,096 (-12%)	1mo	$60,000	$55	60
1070 15th St SE	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,414 (+13%)	5mo	$31,400	$22	48
2121 Cedar St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,394 (+11%)	9mo	$150,000	$108	48
2995 Carson Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,334 (+6%)	4mo	$134,900	$101	46
336 14th St NE	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-10%)	10mo	$149,990	$134	41
939 SE 12th St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,088 (-13%)	3mo	$49,900	$46	39
1337 E Houston St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (-13%)	3mo	$179,500	$165	37
1735 Bella Vis	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,393 (+11%)	10mo	$199,900	$144	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $15,603
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $49,460
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75460

• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,267 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,694/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $716

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2246 Simpson St Paris, TX	3.0	1.0	1508	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	0.07mi
2121 Cedar St Paris, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,000	$1.43	43d	1	0.38mi
370 29th St NE Paris, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,200	$0.98	43d	1	0.77mi
649 E Price St Paris, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.04mi
3215 Clarksville St Paris, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	895	$1,395	$1.56	43d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 89-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,694 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,694 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,694
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,036
• After-tax cash flow: $4,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834290
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,515
• Composite: 29.83/100
• National rank: #6419
• State rank: #521 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paris

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #984
• US rank: #17535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, TX
• County: Lamar County · 23,426 people
• City population: 23,426
• Metro: Paris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,426
• Household income: $46,473
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1355.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.50%
• Current HPI: 145.3511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paris, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $75,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,694 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.