Magnolia Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$374,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,106 sqft · SingleFamily · 272 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Entering through the front door, visitors experience a clear sight line all the way through the core of the home. Bright and spacious, the Magnolia plan features an extended entertaining corridor that includes the dining room, kitchen and gathering room, with sliders opening at the rear onto the back patio. A long prep and serve island, ample counter space and a generous walk-in pantry are perfect for foodies while the central location of the kitchen keeps the chef in your household engaged during social gatherings and events. Three roomy secondary bedrooms share a pair of full baths and the tranquil primary suite is tucked quietly into the back of the home. Enjoy plenty of storage with an

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 272 days

Tags

• EXTENDED ENTERTAINING CORRIDOR
• LONG PREP AND SERVE ISLAND
• GENEROUS WALK-IN PANTRY
• TRANQUIL PRIMARY SUITE
• L-SHAPED WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE SHOWER ENCLOSURE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $380,644

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Magnolia plan; New construction (Plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,106

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $374,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $370,656.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $346k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 272 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $302,740 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 272 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $370,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13239 Commons Ave	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,287 (+9%)	1mo	$385,999	$169	75
13215 Commons Ave	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,287 (+9%)	4mo	$379,999	$166	73
13815 Sawmill St	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,848 (-12%)	1mo	$319,704	$173	69
13508 Cornerstone Way	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,853 (-12%)	6mo	$365,999	$198	68
13219 Commons Ave	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,848 (-12%)	6mo	$341,619	$185	66
14270 Sawmill St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (-2%)	6mo	$454,999	$221	63
13407 Commons Ave	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,792 (-15%)	0mo	$387,529	$216	60
13065 Empress Jewel Trl	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,870 (-11%)	7mo	$329,400	$176	55
13210 Rowhouse Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,400 (+14%)	2mo	$587,079	$245	52
13608 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,935 (-8%)	9mo	$325,000	$168	51
13209 Sunset Sapphire Cir	0.53mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,389 (+13%)	4mo	$346,000	$145	43
12115 Smoky Emerald Ter	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-14%)	3mo	$310,000	$171	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-79,708
• Equity at exit: $55,266

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-117,442
• Equity at exit: $32,048

Cash invested: $103,784 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$463 /mo · $5,560/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,242

Max offer price $346,075

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,664
• Closing costs: $11,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	3d	1	0.29mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,800	$1.30	3d	1	0.32mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	16d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,999 Active 272 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,999 Active 271 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,999 Active 270 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,999 Active 269 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,999 Active 267 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,999 Active 266 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $374,999 Active 264 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,999 Active 263 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $374,999 Active 262 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $374,999 Active 261 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $380,644 Active 257 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $380,644 Active 256 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $380,644 Active 255 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $380,644 Active 254 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,762
• − Property taxes: −$5,560
• − Insurance: −$1,853
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,906
• − Management: −$2,906
• − Depreciation: −$10,783
• Taxable loss: −$8,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,026
• After-tax cash flow: $-12/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B