3318 Racoon Ct · Bel Air South, MD 21009

$285,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,640 sqft · Townhouse public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1989 2,178 sqft lot Est $295k · at est. $85/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3 bedroom 1 full 1 half bath townhome in Box Hill South. The first floor offers huge family room that leads to an open kitchen with an island and plenty of space for a table. A sliding glass door leads to the deck and fenced in rear yard that backs to common area. The second floor has three bedrooms, including the master with a large walk-in closet and an attached bath. Finished lower level with fireplace, storage, and laundry area. The carpet was just replaced in the entire home.

Key facts

• $85 HOA
• Built 1989
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total below-grade finished area: 400 (assessor); Above-grade finished area: 1,240 (assessor); Ground rent paid annually
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $85 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Good condition; Year built estimated
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Partially finished basement with interior access and rough plumbing
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Backs to open common area; Rear yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level; 1 half bathroom (total)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Central A/C (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Built-in shelving/units; Carpet; Ceiling fan(s); Dining area; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Wood floors; Has fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($278/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Abingdon Elementary (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #292 of 860 statewide, top 34%, 658 students, 48% FRL); Edgewood Middle (math 7% / reading 31%, grade F, #155 of 225 statewide, top 70%, 999 students, 72% FRL); Edgewood High (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,415 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 24% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask is 46% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $196k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,980 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3336 Racoon Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+3%)	1mo	$285,000	$169	90
3315 Timberwolf Ct	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,690 (+3%)	6mo	$305,000	$180	81
3102 Holly Berry Ct	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,615 (-2%)	5mo	$310,000	$192	77
3322 Racoon Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+13%)	6mo	$251,000	$135	71
3147 Thornapple Ct	0.20mi	3/3.0	1,826 (+11%)	1mo	$315,000	$173	65
3172 Hidden Ridge Ter	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,760 (+7%)	2mo	$338,000	$192	63
2910 Ruskin Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,705 (+4%)	6mo	$310,000	$182	54
2931 Shelley Ct	0.68mi	3/3.5	1,588 (-3%)	7mo	$324,900	$205	49
2921 Shelley Ct	0.68mi	3/3.5	1,722 (+5%)	3mo	$307,000	$178	49
2932 Carlyle Ct	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,770 (+8%)	6mo	$320,000	$181	45
2835 Meredith Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,842 (+12%)	1mo	$330,000	$179	44
2916 Carlyle Ct	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,800 (+10%)	5mo	$243,000	$135	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-34,228
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $18,924
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,430 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,377/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,401

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $104	+0% $23	+5% $-58	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-73	+0% $23	+5% $119	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $96	base $23	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3406 Winter Moss Ct Abingdon, MD	2.0	2.5	2004	$2,300	$1.15	14d	1	0.16mi
3405 McCurley Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1263	$3,264	$2.58	0d	27	0.68mi
2814 Meredith Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,300	$1.74	25d	1	0.70mi
3361 Cheverly Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,195	$1.46	45d	1	1.14mi
158 Glen View Ter Abingdon, MD	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,995	$1.70	19d	1	1.27mi
129 Long Meadow Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	45d	1	1.38mi
307L Tall Pines Ct Unit L Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,399	$1.85	16d	1	1.41mi
2509 Merrick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	45d	1	1.44mi
2902 Indiansummer Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	3.5	2180	$2,350	$1.08	45d	1	1.44mi
618 Milford Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,450	$1.59	25d	1	1.45mi
618 Milford Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,450	$1.59	6d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $285,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 687-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $285,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,742 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$365/yr (+$30/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,377
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,333
• − Management: −$2,333
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$4,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,100
• After-tax cash flow: $1,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+234.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Coming Soon $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-01-30 Sold (MLS) $195,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-31 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-31 Price Changed $195,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-05 Price Changed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-18 Listed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-10 Sold (MLS) $103,000 MRIS
• 2001-04-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-03-05 Listed $105,000 MRIS
• 1993-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1988-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $85,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,377 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.