642 Grandview Drive Dr · Iron Mountain Lake, MO 63624

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2001 1.38 ac lot $60/sqft · 900% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home on 6 lots within walking distance to Lake. Just a short drive to Farmington and Arcadia Valley. Several outbuildings. Four bedrooms and 2 bath with Large Family area. Main bedroom has attached room that can be used for office or nursery. Bring your pets and all your toys. Enjoy the wildlife from your deck. More photos soon.

Key facts

• Several outbuildings
• 1.38 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO LAKE
• SHORT DRIVE TO FARMINGTON
• SHORT DRIVE TO ARCADIA VALLEY
• SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS
• WILDLIFE FROM YOUR DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#966 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Bismarck R-V (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #292 of 324 in MO (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $117,241 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.80%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $12,500
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 900.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
632 Houston Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,280 (+10%)	3mo	$12,500	$5	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $78,808
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.39×
• Total profit: $223,506
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63624

• Home prices YoY: 23.8%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $593/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $958

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $125,000 Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Manufactured home on 6 lots within walking distance to Lake. Just a short drive to Farmington and Arcadia Valley. Several outbuildings. Four bedrooms and 2 bath with Large Family area. Main bedroom has attached room that can be used for office or nursery. Bring your pets and all your toys. Enjoy the wildlife from your deck. More photos soon.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$620/yr (+$52/mo · 104.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$593
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,126
• − Management: −$1,126
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$38
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9
• After-tax cash flow: $2,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck R-V
• NCES district ID: 2905130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,135
• Composite: 20.36/100
• National rank: #8602
• State rank: #292 of 324 in MO

Livability — Iron Mountain Lake

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #966
• US rank: #26705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iron Mountain Lake, MO
• Population (ZIP): 3,507

Population outlook (St. Francois County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,683 people
• By 2030: 69,574 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 70,665 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 70,708 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 67,917 · -1.1%
• By 2100: 56,563 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Francois

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.8% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 61.65%
• Current HPI: 320.8335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $593 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.