16 Kensington Rd · Cedar Glen West, NJ 08759

$389,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2004 5,720 sqft lot $256/sqft · 16% below area Est $465k · 16% under $290/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to easy living in this beautifully maintained detached ranch, nestled in a highly sought-after active adult community! This inviting 2-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and lifestyle. Designed for effortless one-level living, the home features a bright and spacious layout with an inviting living room and formal dining area plus a family room with a cozy gas fireplace--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The eat-in kitchen offers ample space for casual dining and everyday enjoyment. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with its own full bath, while a second bedroom and full bath offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobby space. Must see!! Enjoy all the benefits of living in a vibrant, well-maintained community known for its desirable amenities and active lifestyle. Whether you're looking to socialize, stay active, or simply enjoy low-maintenance living, this home delivers it all. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy comfort, community, and convenience all in one place!

Key facts

• 5,720 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Cedar Glen West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#366 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $389k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $321,972 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.18%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,798
• List price: $389,000
• Delta: -16.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Kensington Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,520 (0%)	0mo	$411,000	$270	100
7 Chaminox Ct	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,437 (-6%)	3mo	$365,000	$254	71
3 Ravello Rd	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,716 (+13%)	5mo	$407,500	$237	71
5 Florence Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,520 (0%)	0mo	$395,000	$260	68
8 Chaminox Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,377 (-9%)	4mo	$340,000	$247	65
80 Halsted Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,678 (+10%)	4mo	$400,000	$238	64
2 Chambord Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,678 (+10%)	1mo	$409,000	$244	63
32 Gabriella Cir	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,447 (-5%)	5mo	$325,000	$225	62
31 Florence Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,611 (+6%)	1mo	$389,000	$241	61
12 Dunrovin Ct	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,678 (+10%)	2mo	$427,000	$254	57
14 Isabella Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,678 (+10%)	3mo	$599,000	$357	55
5 Geoffrey Ct	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,698 (+12%)	3mo	$519,000	$306	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-87,006
• Equity at exit: $58,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-106,090
• Equity at exit: $33,634

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,209/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$290
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,704

Max offer price $321,972

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2106 Grassy Hollow Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.5	2022	$2,900	$1.43	18d	1	1.12mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	13d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $290 · $3,480/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 1058-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

   Welcome to easy living in this beautifully maintained detached ranch, nestled in a highly sought-after active adult community! This inviting 2-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and lifestyle. Designed for effortless one-level living, the home features a bright and spacious layout with an inviting living room and formal dining area plus a family room with a cozy gas fireplace--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The eat-in kitchen offers ample space for casual dining and everyday enjoyment. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with its own full bath, while a second bedroom and full bath offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobby space. Must see!! Enjoy all the benefits of living in a vibrant, well-maintained community known for its desirable amenities and active lifestyle. Whether you're looking to socialize, stay active, or simply enjoy low-maintenance living, this home delivers it all. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy comfort, community, and convenience all in one place!

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $389,000 Active 1058-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

   Welcome to easy living in this beautifully maintained detached ranch, nestled in a highly sought-after active adult community! This inviting 2-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and lifestyle. Designed for effortless one-level living, the home features a bright and spacious layout with an inviting living room and formal dining area plus a family room with a cozy gas fireplace--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The eat-in kitchen offers ample space for casual dining and everyday enjoyment. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with its own full bath, while a second bedroom and full bath offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobby space. Must see!! Enjoy all the benefits of living in a vibrant, well-maintained community known for its desirable amenities and active lifestyle. Whether you're looking to socialize, stay active, or simply enjoy low-maintenance living, this home delivers it all. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy comfort, community, and convenience all in one place!

3. 2014-01-08
   soldstatus $200,000
4. 2013-11-20
   soldstatus $200,000 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   One Owner Home, Impeccably Maintained. Gas Fireplace in Family Room, Crown Molding in Living Room/Dining Room, Pass-Thru Window from Eat-In-Kitchen to Dining Room, Maple Kitchen Cabinets, Closet Organizers Include Drawers, Cubbies & Hanging.

5. 2013-11-20
   soldstatus $200,000

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   One Owner Home, Impeccably Maintained. Gas Fireplace in Family Room, Crown Molding in Living Room/Dining Room, Pass-Thru Window from Eat-In-Kitchen to Dining Room, Maple Kitchen Cabinets, Closet Organizers Include Drawers, Cubbies & Hanging.

6. 2013-09-16
   historical
7. 2013-09-16
   listed $209,900
8. 2013-09-15
   listed $209,900 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   One Owner Home, Impeccably Maintained. Gas Fireplace in Family Room, Crown Molding in Living Room/Dining Room, Pass-Thru Window from Eat-In-Kitchen to Dining Room, Maple Kitchen Cabinets, Closet Organizers Include Drawers, Cubbies & Hanging.

9. 2013-09-15
   listed $209,900

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   One Owner Home, Impeccably Maintained. Gas Fireplace in Family Room, Crown Molding in Living Room/Dining Room, Pass-Thru Window from Eat-In-Kitchen to Dining Room, Maple Kitchen Cabinets, Closet Organizers Include Drawers, Cubbies & Hanging.

10. 2012-07-03
    historical
11. 2011-12-29
    listed $189,900
12. 2011-12-29
    listed $189,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,209 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,447 · $621/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,239/yr (+$187/mo · 43.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$5,209
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,095
• − Management: −$3,095
• − HOA: −$3,480
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$11,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,699
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Cedar Glen West

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #12309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+104.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $389,000 MOMLS
• 2014-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2013-11-20 Sold (MLS) $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-20 Sold (MLS) $200,000 MOMLS
• 2013-09-16 Listed $209,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-15 Listed $209,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-15 Listed $209,900 MOMLS
• 2012-07-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-12-29 Listed $189,900 MOMLS
• 2011-12-29 Listed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,209 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.