109 Griffin St · Water Valley, MS 38965

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1920 0.47 ac lot Est $78k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home. 3/2 on corner lot.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Renovation project
• Add value

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• EXPAND OUTDOOR LIVING
• RENTAL OPPORTUNITY
• RENOVATION PROJECT
• ADD VALUE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Masonite and wood siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Shed(s)

Interior

• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#233 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Water Valley School District (town): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #61 of 130 in MS (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Yalobusha County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yalobusha County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.83%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,616
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1502 Eckford St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,205 (+2%)	6mo	$79,900	$66	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $33,738
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $89,568
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38965

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $306/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $690

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $778	-5% $756	+0% $733	+5% $710	+10% $688
Rent	-10% $605	-5% $669	+0% $733	+5% $797	+10% $861
Rate	-1.0pp $773	-0.5pp $753	base $733	+0.5pp $712	+1.0pp $691

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $80,000 Active
19. 2024-08-01
    soldstatus Closed 38-char remark

    Show marketing remark (38 chars)

    Great starter home. 3/2 on corner lot.

20. 2024-07-05
    status Pending 38-char remark

    Show marketing remark (38 chars)

    Great starter home. 3/2 on corner lot.

21. 2024-07-03
    listed $75,000 Active 38-char remark

    Show marketing remark (38 chars)

    Great starter home. 3/2 on corner lot.

22. 2016-04-18
    soldstatus 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Affordable home conveniently located within walking distance to park and historic downtown Water Valley. Situated on approx . 4 ac corner lot with lots of nice shade on quiet, low traffic street.

23. 2015-11-03
    listed $32,500 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Affordable home conveniently located within walking distance to park and historic downtown Water Valley. Situated on approx . 4 ac corner lot with lots of nice shade on quiet, low traffic street.

24. 2008-08-06
    soldstatus
25. 1996-04-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $306 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $632 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$326/yr (+$27/mo · 106.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$306
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $7,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,918
• After-tax cash flow: $6,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Water Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2804500
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,107
• Composite: 26.92/100
• National rank: #7083
• State rank: #61 of 130 in MS

Livability — Water Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #19538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Valley, MS
• County: Yalobusha County · 8,963 people
• City population: 8,963
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• Population (ZIP): 8,963
• Household income: $58,258
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 113.0

Population outlook (Yalobusha County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,062 people
• By 2030: 11,811 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 11,297 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 10,771 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 9,679 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 8,400 · -30.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 30% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yalobusha

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.9) · D 38.9% · R 59.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.9 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+4.4 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.65%
• Current HPI: 167.4446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+146.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $80,000 NCMBR
• 2024-08-01 Sold (MLS) — NCMBR
• 2024-07-05 Pending — NCMBR
• 2024-07-03 Listed $75,000 NCMBR
• 2016-04-18 Sold (MLS) — NCMBR
• 2015-11-03 Listed $32,500 NCMBR
• 2008-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $306 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.