5353 Oakwood Dr · Mills, MI 48756

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1940 0.52 ac lot Est $103k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Needs work, priced accordingly. Walking distance to Skidway Lake. Large over 1/2-acre lot. Small storage shed in back yard. Age of house is approximate.

Key facts

• Over 1/2-acre lot
• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1940

Tags

• OVER 1/2-ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Ranch-style single family residence; One-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Built in 1940; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s) on property; Lot approximately 0.52 acres; Well water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eight total rooms; Family room; Living room; Dining room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Whittemore-Prescott Area Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #488 of 540 in MI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $59,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.00%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5307 Acorn Ln	0.17mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,050 (-8%)	5mo	$130,096	$124	67
5296 Oakwood Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,261 (+10%)	17mo	$43,000	$34	64
5336 Acorn Ln	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-8%)	19mo	$112,000	$106	59
2208 Sanderson	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+9%)	10mo	$133,500	$107	53
1931 Tammy Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,144 (0%)	19mo	$105,000	$92	48
2362 Thompson St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+5%)	6mo	$119,000	$99	47
1900 Third Oak St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+9%)	14mo	$59,900	$48	46
5333 Oaklane Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,090 (-5%)	22mo	$98,000	$90	42
2477 E 3rd St	0.56mi	2/— (-1)	1,264 (+10%)	15mo	$47,000	$37	39
5329 Skunk Hollow Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-4%)	23mo	$45,000	$41	37
4997 Lucinda Dr Lot : 1	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,248 (+9%)	16mo	$53,000	$42	35
5340 Skunk Hollow Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-13%)	23mo	$82,500	$83	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $17,901
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $51,159
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48756

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $738/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $507

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 152-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $59,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $738 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$92/yr (+$8/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$738
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,013
• − Management: −$1,013
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $4,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,081
• After-tax cash flow: $4,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whittemore-Prescott Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2636390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,244
• Composite: 14.31/100
• National rank: #9442
• State rank: #488 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Skidway Lake, MI
• Population (ZIP): 3,939

Population outlook (Ogemaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,373 people
• By 2030: 18,348 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 16,176 · -16.5%
• By 2050: 14,294 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 11,280 · -41.8%
• By 2100: 8,942 · -53.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogemaw

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.0) · D 28.4% · R 70.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.0 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+6.2 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.88%
• Current HPI: 213.8025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $59,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $738 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.