20512 Prairie Rd · Alger, WA 98284

$629,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1979 1.41 ac lot $354/sqft · 11% below area Est $688k · 9% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on 1.4 acres of private, usable land, this 3-bedroom, 1.75-bath home offers a peaceful setting with character, just minutes from Sedro-Woolley and I-5. The home is clean, well cared for, and move-in ready, with fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout the main living areas. The living room gets great natural light and opens to a long deck along the side of the home, perfect for morning coffee or summer evenings. The kitchen is functional and spacious, with room to update over time. Upstairs features a bedroom, an updated bathroom, and a flexible bonus space that can work as a dressing room, yoga room, or creative area. The attic offers additional storage. Outside, this

Key facts

• Flexible bonus space
• Shed for tools
• Long deck

Tags

• PRIVATE USABLE LAND
• LONG DECK
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• FLEXIBLE BONUS SPACE
• COVERED WOOD STORAGE
• SHED FOR TOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, VA

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 covered spaces); Approximately 400 sq ft garage; RV parking
• Utilities: Electric, propane, and wood energy sources; Individual well water; Septic tank sewer service; Power provided by PSE; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-family residence, two stories; Entry on lower level; Built on lot; Has view
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition (shingle) roof; Foundation: concrete ribbon, pillar/post/pier, slab; Built condition: good
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products; Deck; Outbuildings; RV parking; Garden space; Wooded setting; Secluded lot; Value in land

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (1 upper, 2 lower)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Stove / free-standing heating; Additional heating noted in remarks; No central cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace (wood-burning); Sauna; Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Water heater in closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $629k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (55.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (59.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (59.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#527 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sedro-Woolley School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #117 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Samish Elementary School (176 students, 49% FRL); Cascade Middle School (697 students, 58% FRL); Sedro Woolley Senior High School (1,276 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$108k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $255,128 (59.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.40%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 20.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $688,218
• List price: $629,000
• Delta: -8.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20512 Prairie Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-3%)	0mo	$600,000	$347	95
20063 Park Ridge Ln	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,851 (+4%)	6mo	$910,000	$492	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $217,107
• Equity at exit: $566,653

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $737,492
• Equity at exit: $1,222,009

Cash invested: $176,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98284

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 20.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,551 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,299
• Tax from tax record: −$422 /mo · $5,062/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-1,967

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,041

Max offer price $281,525

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,611	-5% $-1,789	+0% $-1,967	+5% $-2,145	+10% $-2,323
Rent	-10% $-2,169	-5% $-2,068	+0% $-1,967	+5% $-1,866	+10% $-1,765
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,650	-0.5pp $-1,807	base $-1,967	+0.5pp $-2,130	+1.0pp $-2,296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,250
• Closing costs: $18,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $629,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-05-09
   status Pending - Backup Offer Requested
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $629,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,062 · $422/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,164 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,102/yr (+$92/mo · 21.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥84°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,234
• − Property taxes: −$5,062
• − Insurance: −$3,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,449
• − Management: −$2,449
• − Depreciation: −$18,298
• Taxable loss: −$36,022
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,645
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sedro-Woolley School District
• NCES district ID: 5307740
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,385
• Composite: 47.45/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #117 of 291 in WA

Livability — Alger

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #21801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C+ Employment A Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,835
• Household income: $93,006
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 502.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.42%
• Current HPI: 1280.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $600,280 Public Records
• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) $600,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $629,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,062 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.