9735 E Concho Hwy · Snowflake, AZ 85937

$200,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1979 2.00 ac lot Est $217k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Upgrades galore! This home has been lovingly upgraded for energy efficiency and comfort. Easy country living within only a few minutes of town. Sit on the front porch and take in a views over the horizon. Walk on the concrete sidewalks surrounding the home or park on the concrete drives on each side of the home. Duel pane windows, composite siding installed over house wrap, urethane foam roof sealed with elastomeric sealer and more have been added for energy conservation. There is even a timer for the water heater. Property is fenced on all four sides. Paved road fronts the north side of the property. There are even two lots for a total of 3.12 acres, the front which is 2 acres zoned both residential and commercial.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.9% in Snowflake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#46 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Snowflake Unified District (4391) (town): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #36 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $200k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $166,559 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,580
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9736 E Concho Hwy	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	910 (-7%)	19mo	$194,000	$213	62
001 S Bunkhouse Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+9%)	10mo	$235,000	$221	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $118,228
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $340,550
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85937

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $431/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,479

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $204	+0% $148	+5% $91	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $82	+0% $148	+5% $214	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $199	base $148	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2019-09-27
   soldstatus $87,500 725-char remark

   Show marketing remark (725 chars)

   Upgrades galore! This home has been lovingly upgraded for energy efficiency and comfort. Easy country living within only a few minutes of town. Sit on the front porch and take in a views over the horizon. Walk on the concrete sidewalks surrounding the home or park on the concrete drives on each side of the home. Duel pane windows, composite siding installed over house wrap, urethane foam roof sealed with elastomeric sealer and more have been added for energy conservation. There is even a timer for the water heater. Property is fenced on all four sides. Paved road fronts the north side of the property. There are even two lots for a total of 3.12 acres, the front which is 2 acres zoned both residential and commercial.

2. 2019-09-27
   soldstatus $87,500

   Show marketing remark (725 chars)

   Upgrades galore! This home has been lovingly upgraded for energy efficiency and comfort. Easy country living within only a few minutes of town. Sit on the front porch and take in a views over the horizon. Walk on the concrete sidewalks surrounding the home or park on the concrete drives on each side of the home. Duel pane windows, composite siding installed over house wrap, urethane foam roof sealed with elastomeric sealer and more have been added for energy conservation. There is even a timer for the water heater. Property is fenced on all four sides. Paved road fronts the north side of the property. There are even two lots for a total of 3.12 acres, the front which is 2 acres zoned both residential and commercial.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $431 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$889/yr (+$74/mo · 206.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$431
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,599
• − Management: −$1,599
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$399
• After-tax cash flow: $2,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowflake Unified District (4391)
• NCES district ID: 0407820
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,767
• Composite: 45.91/100
• National rank: #2545
• State rank: #36 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Snowflake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #8817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,975

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.31%
• Current HPI: 480.9577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2019-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 2019-09-27 Sold (MLS) $87,500 WMMLS

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $431 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.