1730 Hilton Head Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$255,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1977 0.40 ac lot Est $255k · at est. $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1730 Hilton Head located in the Master Planned community of Quail Valley and located in acclaimed Fort Bend ISD! A charming 4-2-2 with no back neighbors on an oversized lot offering plenty of privacy. This naturally light & bright home opens to a great room with a fireplace, large windows, and laminate and tile flooring throughout. The spacious primary suite includes a double sink, walk-in closet and a soaking tub! Three additional bedrooms and a secondary bathroom complete this inviting home. the residence offers a great opportunity with a recent AC system, roof, water heater, fence and paint throughout making this home ready for move in. Enjoy a low HOA and taxes! Easy ac

Key facts

• Large windows
• Laminate flooring
• Great room

Tags

• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• OVERSIZED LOT
• GREAT ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• LARGE WINDOWS
• LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association name: Quail Valley Fund
• HOA & community: Part of Quail Valley Fund association; Annual association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, picnic area, playground, park, pool, and tennis courts; Association fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities; Community features include community pool, curbs, and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage with automatic garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1977; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Porch; Private yard; Pond on the lot; Subdivision setting; Concrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Garbage disposal; Breakfast nook (9x7)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15x12); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (11x11, 10x10, 10x10)
• Flooring: Laminate floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Vanity; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lantern Lane El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,834 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,604
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1615 Turtle Creek Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,721 (-1%)	2mo	$275,000	$160	88
3107 Southern Hills Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,531 (-12%)	1mo	$265,000	$173	70
3290 Hunters Glen Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (-3%)	1mo	$210,000	$125	64
3502 Quail Meadow Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,740 (+0%)	2mo	$249,000	$143	63
1519 Wells Manor Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,881 (+9%)	2mo	$327,000	$174	61
16718 Running Quail Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,686 (-3%)	1mo	$235,000	$139	58
3819 Glen Cove Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (+1%)	2mo	$228,000	$130	58
2230 Quail Valley East Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (+6%)	2mo	$224,900	$122	51
2126 Quail Valley East Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-11%)	1mo	$249,900	$163	50
2239 Fall Meadow Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (-12%)	0mo	$224,900	$147	42
16711 Running Quail Ct	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-13%)	3mo	$210,000	$140	42
2307 Clearbrook Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-15%)	0mo	$247,990	$168	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-41,365
• Equity at exit: $53,481

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-58,248
• Equity at exit: $49,536

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$444 /mo · $5,328/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,409

Max offer price $232,513

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-55	+0% $-127	+5% $-199	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-216	+0% $-127	+5% $-38	+10% $50
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-62	base $-127	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	0.47mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	0.55mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	45d	1	0.65mi
2319 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2235	$2,000	$0.89	45d	1	0.81mi
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	45d	1	1.30mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	14d	1	1.38mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	22d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $255,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $255,000 Active
15. 2021-06-10
    soldstatus
16. 2021-05-20
    soldstatus
17. 2009-02-22
    historical
18. 2008-10-04
    listed $99,900
19. 2007-07-24
    soldstatus
20. 2003-05-02
    soldstatus
21. 2002-12-05
    historical
22. 2002-12-04
    listed $1,200
23. 2001-03-30
    historical
24. 2001-02-15
    listed $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,328 · $444/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,328 · $444/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$5,328
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,400
• After-tax cash flow: $-127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+131.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-02-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-10-04 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2007-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-12-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-12-04 Listed $1,200 HARMLS
• 2001-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-02-15 Listed $110,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,328 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.