951 Sand Castle Rd · Sanibel, FL 33957

$799,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,835 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 217 Days on market

Built 1974 0.30 ac lot Est $615k · 30% over $11/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic location in the Dunes with beautiful water and golf course views. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, large open kitchen, great room, large screened lanai, spacious primary bedroom and bathroom, laundry room. Very close to the Dunes with golf, tennis, dining and large pool. Easy access to the Causeway. Home was remediated after Ian.

Key facts

• Custom wet bar
• Gourmet kitchen
• Sweeping lake views

Tags

• PREMIUM SOUTHWEST-FACING LOT
• SWEEPING LAKE VIEWS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• CUSTOM WET BAR
• SPA-INSPIRED PRIMARY SUITE
• FRAMELESS GLASS SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($130); Association amenities include beach rights/access, clubhouse, golf course, restaurant, tennis courts, management; Community features: golf, non-gated community, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway parking; Paved parking; Garage door opener; Two covered spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Municipal irrigation source
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Faces northeast
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on a foundation (standard)
• Exterior features: Security/high impact doors; Automatic sprinklers; Manual sprinklers; Patio; Lanai (open, screened); Porch; Room for pool; On golf course; Rectangular lot; Private paved road frontage; Lake view / across-the-road water frontage; Southwest exposure; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Disposal; Icemaker; Refrigerator with ice maker; Separate ice machine; Wine cooler; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom(s) on main level
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Window coverings; French doors; Furnishing negotiable; Attic with pull-down stairs; Wet bar; Built-in features; Bedroom on main level; Bathtub; Dual sinks; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Family/dining room; Jetted tub; Kitchen island; Living/dining room; Main level primary; Separate shower; Bar; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup inside; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $799k).
• Recommended offer: $703k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $530k; list at $799k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $703,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.34%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $614,725
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1258 Sand Castle Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-7%)	14mo	$570,000	$335	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $13,780
• Equity at exit: $119,133

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $196,862
• Equity at exit: $69,083

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$556 /mo · $6,677/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,064
• Net cashflow: $2,247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,983

Max offer price $799,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1666 Sabal Palm Dr Sanibel, FL	2.0	2.5	1715	$3,500	$2.04	23d	1	1.01mi
424 Lagoon Dr Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$18,200	$10.68	23d	1	1.02mi
1679 Serenity Ln Unit 1323695P Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$7,115	$4.32	16d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $799,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $799,000 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $799,000 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $799,000 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $799,000 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $799,000 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $799,000 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $799,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $799,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-04-26
    price $799,000
11. 2026-04-14
    price $809,000
12. 2026-02-23
    price $819,000
13. 2026-01-31
    price $848,000
14. 2025-11-12
    listed $865,000 Active
15. 2023-09-07
    soldstatus $530,000
16. 2023-08-25
    soldstatus $530,000 Closed 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Fantastic location in the Dunes with beautiful water and golf course views. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, large open kitchen, great room, large screened lanai, spacious primary bedroom and bathroom, laundry room. Very close to the Dunes with golf, tennis, dining and large pool. Easy access to the Causeway. Home was remediated after Ian.

17. 2023-07-24
    status Pending 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Fantastic location in the Dunes with beautiful water and golf course views. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, large open kitchen, great room, large screened lanai, spacious primary bedroom and bathroom, laundry room. Very close to the Dunes with golf, tennis, dining and large pool. Easy access to the Causeway. Home was remediated after Ian.

18. 2023-06-09
    price $629,000 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Fantastic location in the Dunes with beautiful water and golf course views. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, large open kitchen, great room, large screened lanai, spacious primary bedroom and bathroom, laundry room. Very close to the Dunes with golf, tennis, dining and large pool. Easy access to the Causeway. Home was remediated after Ian.

19. 2023-03-08
    price $679,000 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Fantastic location in the Dunes with beautiful water and golf course views. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, large open kitchen, great room, large screened lanai, spacious primary bedroom and bathroom, laundry room. Very close to the Dunes with golf, tennis, dining and large pool. Easy access to the Causeway. Home was remediated after Ian.

20. 2023-02-21
    listed $719,000 Active 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Fantastic location in the Dunes with beautiful water and golf course views. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, large open kitchen, great room, large screened lanai, spacious primary bedroom and bathroom, laundry room. Very close to the Dunes with golf, tennis, dining and large pool. Easy access to the Causeway. Home was remediated after Ian.

21. 2011-04-04
    soldstatus $390,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    FANTASTIC GOLF COURSE AND LAKE VIEWS ACROSS THE FIRST FAIRWAY AT THE DUNES. LARGE SCREENED LANAI WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR A POOL. FORMAL LIVING ROOM AND SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM MAKES THIS A VERY SPACIOUS HOME. RIGHT NEXT TO THE DUNES CLUBHOUSE. FAMILY MEMBERSHIP AVAILABLE FOR ONLY $615.00 ANNUALLY. EASY WALK TO TENNIS, POOL, GOLF AND DINING. OFFERED FULLY FURNISHED - TOTALLY TURNKEY.

22. 2011-04-04
    soldstatus $390,000

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    FANTASTIC GOLF COURSE AND LAKE VIEWS ACROSS THE FIRST FAIRWAY AT THE DUNES. LARGE SCREENED LANAI WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR A POOL. FORMAL LIVING ROOM AND SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM MAKES THIS A VERY SPACIOUS HOME. RIGHT NEXT TO THE DUNES CLUBHOUSE. FAMILY MEMBERSHIP AVAILABLE FOR ONLY $615.00 ANNUALLY. EASY WALK TO TENNIS, POOL, GOLF AND DINING. OFFERED FULLY FURNISHED - TOTALLY TURNKEY.

23. 2011-02-11
    price $499,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    FANTASTIC GOLF COURSE AND LAKE VIEWS ACROSS THE FIRST FAIRWAY AT THE DUNES. LARGE SCREENED LANAI WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR A POOL. FORMAL LIVING ROOM AND SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM MAKES THIS A VERY SPACIOUS HOME. RIGHT NEXT TO THE DUNES CLUBHOUSE. FAMILY MEMBERSHIP AVAILABLE FOR ONLY $615.00 ANNUALLY. EASY WALK TO TENNIS, POOL, GOLF AND DINING. OFFERED FULLY FURNISHED - TOTALLY TURNKEY.

24. 1989-11-08
    soldstatus $185,000
25. 1976-01-01
    soldstatus $68,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,677 · $556/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,677 · $556/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $117,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$6,677
• − Insurance: −$9,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,434
• − Management: −$9,434
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable income: $15,140
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,634
• After-tax cash flow: $23,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1066.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $799,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $809,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $819,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $848,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $865,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $530,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-25 Sold (MLS) $530,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-07-24 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2023-06-09 Price Changed $629,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-03-08 Price Changed $679,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-02-21 Listed $719,000 FORTMLS
• 2011-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-04 Sold (MLS) $390,000 FORTMLS
• 2011-02-11 Price Changed $499,000 FORTMLS
• 1989-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 1976-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,677 · -11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.