1936 Palo Alto Ave · The Villages, FL 32159

$399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1999 7,260 sqft lot Est $400k · at est. $199/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Wake up to peaceful golf course views and end your day with sunset skies over the 9th hole of Tierra Del Sol—this is the kind of lifestyle The Villages was designed for. Located in the highly sought-after Village of Palo Alto, this true 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and location—just minutes from everything that makes The Villages special. Step inside to a light and bright TURNKEY home approximately 1,700+ sq ft, featuring a spacious living and dining area and a seamless flow into the kitchen and breakfast nook. The kitchen is well-equipped with ample counter space, pantry storage, and updated appliance

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Irrigation system
• Golf course views

Tags

• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• ENCLOSED ACRYLIC LANAI
• SCREENED PATIO
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• IRRIGATION SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 66 x 110 (0.17 acres); Paved road access; Turnkey furnished; Living area reported from public records; Third-party listing attribution
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community is designated as a senior community; Pets allowed; Total monthly fees: $199; Total annual fees: $2,388; CDD assessed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $324k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,236/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $323,609 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $399,595
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2051 Palo Alto Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,908 (+11%)	0mo	$360,000	$189	73
821 San Salvador Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,948 (+14%)	2mo	$580,000	$298	70
1918 Armondo Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,963 (+14%)	1mo	$325,000	$166	68
1903 Antonia Pl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-15%)	1mo	$380,000	$260	67
602 Juanita Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+4%)	1mo	$389,000	$219	67
930 Camino Del Rey Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,558 (-9%)	1mo	$292,000	$187	64
2125 Zaragoza Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-13%)	1mo	$370,000	$248	63
1605 Chavez Ct	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (-4%)	2mo	$320,000	$195	61
923 Camino Del Rey Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-11%)	2mo	$292,000	$191	59
922 Soledad Way	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,827 (+6%)	2mo	$515,000	$282	58
1134 Salido Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-10%)	1mo	$360,000	$233	57
1028 Soledad Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,592 (-7%)	1mo	$437,500	$275	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-69,622
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-56,997
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,236 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,672/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$199
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,399

Max offer price $377,129

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2002 Salinas Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$5,500	$3.35	21d	1	0.26mi
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	21d	1	0.35mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	21d	1	0.45mi
722 Camino del Rey Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$2,000	$1.66	21d	1	0.57mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	21d	1	0.60mi
1522 Yucatan Way Unit 1525265P Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1732	$1,829	$1.06	21d	1	0.62mi
1524 Martinez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1199	$2,095	$1.75	21d	1	0.71mi
613 Enconto St Unit 1525268P The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,788	$1.63	21d	1	0.87mi
1688 Garcia Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,700	$1.58	21d	1	0.98mi
1505 Doria Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$3,500	$1.71	21d	1	1.00mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	21d	1	1.00mi
1304 Santa Rosa Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$4,500	$3.50	21d	1	1.01mi
1314 Corona Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$2,500	$1.51	21d	1	1.10mi
716 Dominguez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,450	$2.24	21d	1	1.12mi
628 Dominguez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,245	$1.85	21d	1	1.14mi
1330 La Jolla Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$3,000	$2.47	21d	1	1.19mi
943 Mendoza Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1268	$5,800	$4.57	24d	1	1.21mi
314 Juarez Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	21d	1	1.27mi
623 Arteaga Way Unit 1525262P The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,896	$1.15	21d	1	1.29mi
1401 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$1,999	$1.29	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $199 · $2,388/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $399,900 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $399,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $399,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $399,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $399,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-05-17
   price $399,900
8. 2026-04-20
   listed $429,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,672 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,319 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$647/yr (+$54/mo · 24.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$2,672
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,107
• − Management: −$3,107
• − HOA: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$8,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,034
• After-tax cash flow: $487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $399,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $429,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,672 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.