409 Mountain Ash Dr · Canandaigua, NY 14424

$59,750

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $57k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well keep single wide trailer located in Thomas Estates. Double wide blacktop parking, concrete patio and shed for all your storage needs

Key facts

• Massive island
• Private yard
• Pergola

Tags

• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• MASSIVE ISLAND
• PRIVATE YARD
• FRUIT TREES
• PATIO
• PERGOLA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $726

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story; Resale property; City street frontage; Rectangular, residential lot
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Foam insulation; Asphalt roof; Crawl space foundation; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling; Ductless and forced-air gas heating
• Interior features: Country kitchen; Kitchen island; Main-level primary suite; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Cap rate 30.4% vs local median 3.4% in Canandaigua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in NY, #3,822 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman) (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #519 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $60k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $59,750

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.99%
• DSCR: 4.83
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $57,120
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
317 Oak Tree Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,120 (0%)	15mo	$43,900	$39	71
423 Mountain Ash Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	960 (-14%)	5mo	$62,000	$65	69
205 Crabapple Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	11mo	$64,900	$61	57
326 Oak Tree Dr Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-12%)	9mo	$42,500	$43	57
230 Crabapple Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-12%)	4mo	$50,000	$51	52
227 Crabapple St	0.42mi	3/1.0	980 (-12%)	10mo	$46,000	$47	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $77,488
• Equity at exit: $8,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.0%
• Equity multiple: 13.85×
• Total profit: $214,997
• Equity at exit: $5,166

Cash invested: $16,730 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14424

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$313
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $896/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $1,199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $523

Max offer price $59,750

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,938
• Closing costs: $1,792
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $59,750 Active
3. 2017-05-19
   soldstatus $21,500 Closed Sale or Rented 137-char remark

   Show marketing remark (137 chars)

   Well keep single wide trailer located in Thomas Estates. Double wide blacktop parking, concrete patio and shed for all your storage needs

4. 2017-04-28
   status Pending Sale 137-char remark

   Show marketing remark (137 chars)

   Well keep single wide trailer located in Thomas Estates. Double wide blacktop parking, concrete patio and shed for all your storage needs

5. 2017-02-11
   listed $25,000 Active 137-char remark

   Show marketing remark (137 chars)

   Well keep single wide trailer located in Thomas Estates. Double wide blacktop parking, concrete patio and shed for all your storage needs

6. 2017-02-10
   historical
7. 2016-12-04
   price $25,000
8. 2016-11-12
   listed $29,700 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,347
• − Property taxes: −$896
• − Insurance: −$299
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,959
• − Management: −$1,959
• − Depreciation: −$1,738
• Taxable income: $14,286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,429
• After-tax cash flow: $10,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman)
• NCES district ID: 3612300
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,088
• Composite: 34.33/100
• National rank: #5233
• State rank: #519 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canandaigua

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 28,786
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 28,786
• Household income: $79,778
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 737.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.94%
• Current HPI: 263.755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+101.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $59,750 UNYREIS
• 2017-05-19 Sold (MLS) $21,500 UNYREIS
• 2017-04-28 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2017-02-11 Listed $25,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-02-10 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2016-12-04 Price Changed $25,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-11-12 Listed $29,700 UNYREIS