21010 Lodi Pl · California City, CA 93505

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1971 9,071 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 21010 Lodi Pl! This single-story 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is situated on a cul-de-sac and offers a comfortable, functional layout. The living room features vaulted ceilings and is open to the eat-in dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and gatherings. The property offers nicely sized front and rear yards, providing plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or entertaining. An oversized driveway allows for ample parking and is complemented by a 2-car attached garage for added convenience. In the backyard, you'll find a covered patio--ideal for relaxing or hosting while enjoying the outdoor space. With its cul-de-sac location and generous lot, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to make it your own.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Front and rear yards
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• COVERED PATIO
• FRONT AND REAR YARDS
• OVERSIZED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage parking spaces (two total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public/District water; Sewer or septic (unknown)
• Home design: Single-story house; No attached accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Structure type: House; Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-level layout; Front door entry; All bedrooms on the main level; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.2% in California City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $190k implies a 246% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,145 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $114,290
• Equity at exit: $171,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.40×
• Total profit: $340,157
• Equity at exit: $368,934

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,084/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,475

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21601 Randsburg Mojave Rd Unit C California City, CA	2.0	2.0	896	$1,150	$1.28	2d	1	0.53mi
21306 Bancroft Ct California City, CA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,800	$1.99	3d	1	0.98mi
21187 Conklin Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,800	$1.22	14d	1	1.04mi
9931 Putter Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,675	$1.16	3d	1	1.06mi
9933 N Loop Blvd Unit B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	895	$1,875	$2.09	23d	1	1.19mi
9848 Sally Ave Unit 2 California City, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,495	$1.53	23d	1	1.26mi
9825 N Loop Blvd Unit B California City, CA	2.0	1.0	883	$1,350	$1.53	19d	1	1.29mi
9817 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.5	850	$1,075	$1.26	2d	1	1.29mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	11d	1	1.35mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	3d	1	1.35mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	23d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $189,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active Under Contract 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active Under Contract 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $189,900 Active Under Contract 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $189,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active Under Contract 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on market $189,900 Active Under Contract 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    status Pending Sale

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Welcome to 21010 Lodi Pl! This single-story 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is situated on a cul-de-sac and offers a comfortable, functional layout. The living room features vaulted ceilings and is open to the eat-in dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and gatherings. The property offers nicely sized front and rear yards, providing plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or entertaining. An oversized driveway allows for ample parking and is complemented by a 2-car attached garage for added convenience. In the backyard, you'll find a covered patio--ideal for relaxing or hosting while enjoying the outdoor space. With its cul-de-sac location and generous lot, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to make it your own.

17. 2026-04-23
    status Pending 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Welcome to 21010 Lodi Pl! This single-story 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is situated on a cul-de-sac and offers a comfortable, functional layout. The living room features vaulted ceilings and is open to the eat-in dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and gatherings. The property offers nicely sized front and rear yards, providing plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or entertaining. An oversized driveway allows for ample parking and is complemented by a 2-car attached garage for added convenience. In the backyard, you'll find a covered patio--ideal for relaxing or hosting while enjoying the outdoor space. With its cul-de-sac location and generous lot, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to make it your own.

18. 2026-04-20
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Welcome to 21010 Lodi Pl! This single-story 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is situated on a cul-de-sac and offers a comfortable, functional layout. The living room features vaulted ceilings and is open to the eat-in dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and gatherings. The property offers nicely sized front and rear yards, providing plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or entertaining. An oversized driveway allows for ample parking and is complemented by a 2-car attached garage for added convenience. In the backyard, you'll find a covered patio--ideal for relaxing or hosting while enjoying the outdoor space. With its cul-de-sac location and generous lot, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to make it your own.

19. 2026-04-20
    historical Active Under Contract 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Welcome to 21010 Lodi Pl! This single-story 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is situated on a cul-de-sac and offers a comfortable, functional layout. The living room features vaulted ceilings and is open to the eat-in dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and gatherings. The property offers nicely sized front and rear yards, providing plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or entertaining. An oversized driveway allows for ample parking and is complemented by a 2-car attached garage for added convenience. In the backyard, you'll find a covered patio--ideal for relaxing or hosting while enjoying the outdoor space. With its cul-de-sac location and generous lot, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to make it your own.

20. 2026-04-14
    price $189,900 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Welcome to 21010 Lodi Pl! This single-story 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is situated on a cul-de-sac and offers a comfortable, functional layout. The living room features vaulted ceilings and is open to the eat-in dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and gatherings. The property offers nicely sized front and rear yards, providing plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or entertaining. An oversized driveway allows for ample parking and is complemented by a 2-car attached garage for added convenience. In the backyard, you'll find a covered patio--ideal for relaxing or hosting while enjoying the outdoor space. With its cul-de-sac location and generous lot, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to make it your own.

21. 2026-04-14
    price $189,900

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Welcome to 21010 Lodi Pl! This single-story 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is situated on a cul-de-sac and offers a comfortable, functional layout. The living room features vaulted ceilings and is open to the eat-in dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and gatherings. The property offers nicely sized front and rear yards, providing plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or entertaining. An oversized driveway allows for ample parking and is complemented by a 2-car attached garage for added convenience. In the backyard, you'll find a covered patio--ideal for relaxing or hosting while enjoying the outdoor space. With its cul-de-sac location and generous lot, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to make it your own.

22. 2026-02-28
    listed $211,000 Active
23. 2026-02-27
    listed $211,000 Active 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Welcome to 21010 Lodi Pl! This single-story 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is situated on a cul-de-sac and offers a comfortable, functional layout. The living room features vaulted ceilings and is open to the eat-in dining area and kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and gatherings. The property offers nicely sized front and rear yards, providing plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or entertaining. An oversized driveway allows for ample parking and is complemented by a 2-car attached garage for added convenience. In the backyard, you'll find a covered patio--ideal for relaxing or hosting while enjoying the outdoor space. With its cul-de-sac location and generous lot, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to make it your own.

24. 2001-02-13
    soldstatus $54,900 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Nice 3+2 in older section of CA City. Near road to Base and Prison. Community features:sidewalks! streetlights! Natural Gas! Sewer! Yard features fencing, sprinklers, big trees. Home needs some tlc and will fix at this price but seller will also consider lower as is offers.

25. 2001-02-13
    soldstatus $54,000

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Nice 3+2 in older section of CA City. Near road to Base and Prison. Community features:sidewalks! streetlights! Natural Gas! Sewer! Yard features fencing, sprinklers, big trees. Home needs some tlc and will fix at this price but seller will also consider lower as is offers.

26. 2000-12-01
    listed $54,900 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Nice 3+2 in older section of CA City. Near road to Base and Prison. Community features:sidewalks! streetlights! Natural Gas! Sewer! Yard features fencing, sprinklers, big trees. Home needs some tlc and will fix at this price but seller will also consider lower as is offers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,084 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,443 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$359/yr (+$30/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,084
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$468
• After-tax cash flow: $1,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+245.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — AVMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $189,900 AVMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $189,900 CRMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $211,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $211,000 AVMLS
• 2001-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-13 Sold (MLS) $54,900 AVMLS
• 2000-12-01 Listed $54,900 AVMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,084 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.