1900 Bay Area Blvd #169 · Houston, TX 77058

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Condo public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1975 $104/sqft · 15% below area Est $106k · 15% under $386/mo HOA · 35% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to University Trace Townhome community. Gently lived in and provides peace and tranquil living in the heart of Clear Lake. This home is conveniently located near shopping, popular restaurants, Johnson Space Center, Schools, and the new Exploration Green walking trail. Clear Lake also has an amazing community center with many activities to enjoy. This property has a new stove, dishwasher, and microwave that have never been used. The refrigerator washer and dryer come with the property! All exterior maintenance is managed by the HOA. You'll appreciate the first floor living convenience with your assigned parking space just steps from your door! The 2 bedrooms are generous in size and offer plenty of closet space for storage. Whether you are looking to lease out the property or take advantage of the peaceful community as your own home, you will enjoy the pleasures of University Trace Townhome community.

Key facts

• New stove
• New dishwasher
• New microwave

Tags

• NEW STOVE
• NEW DISHWASHER
• NEW MICROWAVE
• REFRIGERATOR WASHER AND DRYER
• FIRST FLOOR LIVING CONVENIENCE
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $49k (45.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Falcon Pass El (math 52% / reading 56%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 573 students, 41% FRL); Space Center Int (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Clear Creek H S (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #444 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,400 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,809 (45.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.34%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,206
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -15.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.22% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-23,692
• Equity at exit: $20,786

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-37,182
• Equity at exit: $21,037

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77058

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,440/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$386
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $48,809

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-187	-5% $-213	+0% $-238	+5% $-264	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-324	-5% $-281	+0% $-238	+5% $-195	+10% $-152
Rate	-1.0pp $-193	-0.5pp $-215	base $-238	+0.5pp $-262	+1.0pp $-285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1707 Gemini St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	946	$1,109	$1.17	46d	1	0.05mi
1707 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	652	$940	$1.44	21d	1	0.05mi
1707 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	652	$940	$1.44	23d	1	0.05mi
1730 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	761	$981	$1.29	46d	1	0.07mi
1730 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	761	$981	$1.29	24d	1	0.07mi
1730 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	938	$1,266	$1.35	26d	1	0.07mi
1620 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	685	$1,137	$1.66	1d	23	0.09mi
2000 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,250	$1.48	0d	18	0.21mi
1500 Bay Area Blvd Unit R195 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	26d	1	0.30mi
1500 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	46d	1	0.30mi
1424 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$1,254	$1.72	21d	1	0.37mi
1245 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,062	$1.25	26d	1	0.38mi
1306 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$1,180	$1.79	46d	1	0.47mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	670	$955	$1.43	15d	1	0.53mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,099	$1.37	9d	1	0.53mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	46d	1	0.53mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	670	$955	$1.43	26d	1	0.53mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16221 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	682	$838	$1.23	15d	1	0.53mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,002	$1.03	7d	1	0.53mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,002	$1.03	9d	1	0.53mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$986	$1.01	1d	1	0.53mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16251 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	682	$833	$1.22	46d	1	0.53mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16257 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,112	$1.14	46d	1	0.53mi
1300 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,028	$1.07	1d	30	0.54mi
16100 Center Blvd Unit 16151 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	678	$925	$1.36	46d	1	0.55mi
16100 Center Blvd Unit 16157 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	903	$1,319	$1.46	46d	1	0.55mi
16106 Center Blvd Spc Center Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	687	$920	$1.34	46d	1	0.56mi
16100 Center Blvd Spc Center Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$763	$0.94	3d	12	0.57mi
2323 Fairwind Dr #105 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	704	$1,400	$1.99	24d	1	0.68mi
306 Cyberonics Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,170	$1.12	26d	1	0.70mi
306 Cyberonics Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$949	$1.36	21d	1	0.70mi
306 Cyberonics Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$949	$1.36	46d	1	0.70mi
15900 Center Blvd Spc Center Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	894	$900	$1.01	1d	9	0.71mi
15906 Center BLVD Spc Center Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,353	$1.46	19d	1	0.74mi
15906 Center BLVD Spc Center Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	638	$881	$1.38	26d	1	0.74mi
15906 Center BLVD Spc Center Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,353	$1.46	46d	1	0.74mi
47 Buccaneer Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$935	$1.28	46d	1	0.76mi
47 Buccaneer Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$935	$1.28	19d	1	0.76mi
47 Buccaneer Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	26d	1	0.76mi
300 Cyberonics Blvd Unit 357 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,199	$1.15	1d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $386 · $4,632/yr
• Likely covers: exterior maint.parking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 928-char remark

   Show marketing remark (928 chars)

   Welcome home to University Trace Townhome community. Gently lived in and provides peace and tranquil living in the heart of Clear Lake. This home is conveniently located near shopping, popular restaurants, Johnson Space Center, Schools, and the new Exploration Green walking trail. Clear Lake also has an amazing community center with many activities to enjoy. This property has a new stove, dishwasher, and microwave that have never been used. The refrigerator washer and dryer come with the property! All exterior maintenance is managed by the HOA. You'll appreciate the first floor living convenience with your assigned parking space just steps from your door! The 2 bedrooms are generous in size and offer plenty of closet space for storage. Whether you are looking to lease out the property or take advantage of the peaceful community as your own home, you will enjoy the pleasures of University Trace Townhome community.

3. 2026-04-19
   price $90,000 928-char remark

   Show marketing remark (928 chars)

   Welcome home to University Trace Townhome community. Gently lived in and provides peace and tranquil living in the heart of Clear Lake. This home is conveniently located near shopping, popular restaurants, Johnson Space Center, Schools, and the new Exploration Green walking trail. Clear Lake also has an amazing community center with many activities to enjoy. This property has a new stove, dishwasher, and microwave that have never been used. The refrigerator washer and dryer come with the property! All exterior maintenance is managed by the HOA. You'll appreciate the first floor living convenience with your assigned parking space just steps from your door! The 2 bedrooms are generous in size and offer plenty of closet space for storage. Whether you are looking to lease out the property or take advantage of the peaceful community as your own home, you will enjoy the pleasures of University Trace Townhome community.

4. 2026-04-11
   listed $105,000 Active 928-char remark

   Show marketing remark (928 chars)

   Welcome home to University Trace Townhome community. Gently lived in and provides peace and tranquil living in the heart of Clear Lake. This home is conveniently located near shopping, popular restaurants, Johnson Space Center, Schools, and the new Exploration Green walking trail. Clear Lake also has an amazing community center with many activities to enjoy. This property has a new stove, dishwasher, and microwave that have never been used. The refrigerator washer and dryer come with the property! All exterior maintenance is managed by the HOA. You'll appreciate the first floor living convenience with your assigned parking space just steps from your door! The 2 bedrooms are generous in size and offer plenty of closet space for storage. Whether you are looking to lease out the property or take advantage of the peaceful community as your own home, you will enjoy the pleasures of University Trace Townhome community.

5. 2000-05-25
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,440 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,440 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,440
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,046
• − Management: −$1,046
• − HOA: −$4,632
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$4,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,008
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,850
• Household income: $68,722
• Rent vs Own: 68.8% rent · 31.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Asian 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.22%
• Current HPI: 225.0251
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2000-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,440 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.