311 E Adair St · Owenton, KY 40359

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1954 6,534 sqft lot $115/sqft · 36% below area Est $155k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Great starter home conveniently located to shopping and dining Owenton! Perfect for first-time homeowners or investors looking to add to their portfolio. Affordable price, small-town charm, and plenty of potential make this one worth a look. Don't miss your chance to own in a growing market. Featuring 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a perfect in-town setting! Occupied by tenants that have been in place 44 years. Immediate income potential.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Shingle roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built as existing structure
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Private yard; Partial fencing; Cleared lot; Paved city street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (approx. 7'2" x 13'6")
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (approx. 11'6" x 13'8")
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Primary bathroom (approx. 4'8" x 5'3")
• Interior features: Covered porch; Private yard; Partial fencing; Smoke detector(s); Vinyl window frames
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry with electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-19/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.4% in Owenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#355 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Owen County (rural): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #120 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Owen County Elementary/Primary School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #378 of 676 statewide, top 57%, 690 students, 62% FRL); Maurice Bowling Middle School (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 217 statewide, top 78%, 484 students, 62% FRL); Owen County High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 558 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Owen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Owen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $81,226 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,028
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -35.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Horizon Homes Cir	0.62mi	2/1.0	864 (-0%)	9mo	$150,000	$174	63
30 Horizon Homes Cir	0.55mi	2/1.0	920 (+6%)	2mo	$175,000	$190	63
219 E Blanton St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+11%)	16mo	$170,000	$177	56
310 Jones Hill Rd	0.37mi	2/1.0	750 (-14%)	6mo	$22,000	$29	55
106 Roland Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	960 (+11%)	6mo	$94,000	$98	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $54,289
• Equity at exit: $89,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $159,920
• Equity at exit: $194,084

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40359

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $812 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $933/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $99,616

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 435-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $99,900 Active 435-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $933 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $933 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$933
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$780
• − Management: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$419
• After-tax cash flow: $400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Owen County
• NCES district ID: 2104560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $42,943
• Composite: 23.84/100
• National rank: #7804
• State rank: #120 of 165 in KY

Livability — Owenton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #16856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Owenton, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,222

Population outlook (Owen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,496 people
• By 2030: 10,251 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 9,650 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 8,984 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 7,589 · -27.7%
• By 2100: 6,380 · -39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Owen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.0% · R 80.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.8pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+58.5 2016: R+53.7 2012: R+32.3 2008: R+26.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.56%
• Current HPI: 215.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $99,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $933 · +41.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.