21 Birdwood Dr · Natchez, MS 39120

$38,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1956 10,454 sqft lot $41/sqft · 38% below area Est $62k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy 2 bedroom, 1 bath home with a fenced backyard and plenty of potential. This home features a functional layout, a full bath with tub/shower combo, and a kitchen with refrigerator and stove included. Perfect for a starter home, investment property, or buyer looking to make it their own. Property is being sold AS-IS and could use some TLC, but offers a great opportunity at an affordable price.

Key facts

• Kitchen with stove
• Full bath
• Functional layout

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• FULL BATH
• KITCHEN WITH REFRIGERATOR
• KITCHEN WITH STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area (per assessor): 936; Lot size approximately 0.24 acres
• Financial info: Tax information provided (annual tax available)
• HOA & community: HOA information not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Security: Security information not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence (House); One level
• Construction: Brick veneer and wood siding construction; Slab foundation; Built year source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Front porch; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Flooring information not provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Awning(s); Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer information not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $693 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.9% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $266 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,345 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.15%
• DSCR: 4.43
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,153
• List price: $38,500
• Delta: -38.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1235 Magnolia Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+7%)	1mo	$55,000	$55	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $37,926
• Equity at exit: $5,740

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.35×
• Total profit: $89,960
• Equity at exit: $3,329

Cash invested: $10,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$202
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $684/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $348

Max offer price $38,500

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,625
• Closing costs: $1,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,500 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,500 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,500 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,500 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,500 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $38,500 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,500 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,500 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $38,500 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $38,500 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $38,500 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,500 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,500 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,500 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $38,500 Active 398-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,157
• − Property taxes: −$684
• − Insurance: −$192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$1,120
• Taxable income: $8,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,968
• After-tax cash flow: $6,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $38,500 MLSU

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $684 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.