51 Lockitt Dr · Jamesport, NY 11901

$790,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1961 0.30 ac lot $583/sqft · 26% below area Est $1061k · 26% under $25/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the one you’ve been waiting for! Beautiful expanded 3-bedroom, 2 full bath ranch located on a private road with beach access just steps away to the PECONIC BAY. This light and bright home features wood floors, gas cooking/heat, and a wood-burning fireplace that adds warmth and charm. The expanded layout offers a spacious living room, dining room, and an eat-in kitchen, along with a beautiful 4 season sun-room, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional highlights include a detached oversized two-car garage and a walk-up attic with abundant storage and expansion potential. Located in the beautiful hamlet of Jamesport, this charming North Fork community offers a quaint, historic downtown, lovely rural scenery, and some of the best wine and dining destinations on the North Fork. The location and lifestyle are truly unmatched.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1961

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $790k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($173k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $790k).
• Recommended offer: $743k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,185 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $221k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($743k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $497k; list at $790k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $742,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.36%
• DSCR: 4.49
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,060,782
• List price: $790,000
• Delta: -25.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
481 Peconic Bay Blvd	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,327 (-2%)	2mo	$650,000	$490	67
23 Scallop Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,285 (-5%)	5mo	$2,400,000	$1,868	66
61 Morningside Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,507 (+11%)	9mo	$990,000	$657	59
57 Front St	0.59mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,213 (-10%)	10mo	$730,000	$602	42
610 Peconic Bay Blvd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+11%)	24mo	$700,000	$467	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $792,201
• Equity at exit: $117,792

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.48×
• Total profit: $1,875,543
• Equity at exit: $68,305

Cash invested: $221,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,143
• Tax from tax record: −$809 /mo · $9,711/yr
• Insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $14,444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,717

Max offer price $790,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $197,500
• Closing costs: $23,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Scallop Ln South Jamesport, NY	3.0	2.0	1285	$25,000	$19.46	43d	1	0.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $790,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $790,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $790,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $790,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $790,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $790,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $790,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $790,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $790,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $790,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $790,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $790,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $790,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $790,000 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    This is the one you’ve been waiting for! Beautiful expanded 3-bedroom, 2 full bath ranch located on a private road with beach access just steps away to the PECONIC BAY. This light and bright home features wood floors, gas cooking/heat, and a wood-burning fireplace that adds warmth and charm. The expanded layout offers a spacious living room, dining room, and an eat-in kitchen, along with a beautiful 4 season sun-room, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional highlights include a detached oversized two-car garage and a walk-up attic with abundant storage and expansion potential. Located in the beautiful hamlet of Jamesport, this charming North Fork community offers a quaint, historic downtown, lovely rural scenery, and some of the best wine and dining destinations on the North Fork. The location and lifestyle are truly unmatched.

16. 2026-03-27
    listed $799,000 Active 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    This is the one you’ve been waiting for! Beautiful expanded 3-bedroom, 2 full bath ranch located on a private road with beach access just steps away to the PECONIC BAY. This light and bright home features wood floors, gas cooking/heat, and a wood-burning fireplace that adds warmth and charm. The expanded layout offers a spacious living room, dining room, and an eat-in kitchen, along with a beautiful 4 season sun-room, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional highlights include a detached oversized two-car garage and a walk-up attic with abundant storage and expansion potential. Located in the beautiful hamlet of Jamesport, this charming North Fork community offers a quaint, historic downtown, lovely rural scenery, and some of the best wine and dining destinations on the North Fork. The location and lifestyle are truly unmatched.

17. 2026-03-25
    historical $799,000 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    This is the one you’ve been waiting for! Beautiful expanded 3-bedroom, 2 full bath ranch located on a private road with beach access just steps away to the PECONIC BAY. This light and bright home features wood floors, gas cooking/heat, and a wood-burning fireplace that adds warmth and charm. The expanded layout offers a spacious living room, dining room, and an eat-in kitchen, along with a beautiful 4 season sun-room, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional highlights include a detached oversized two-car garage and a walk-up attic with abundant storage and expansion potential. Located in the beautiful hamlet of Jamesport, this charming North Fork community offers a quaint, historic downtown, lovely rural scenery, and some of the best wine and dining destinations on the North Fork. The location and lifestyle are truly unmatched.

18. 2019-11-01
    soldstatus $497,125

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,711 · $809/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,531 · $961/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,820/yr (+$152/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,252
• − Property taxes: −$9,711
• − Insurance: −$3,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$22,982
• Taxable income: $170,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$40,993
• After-tax cash flow: $132,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jamesport

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1185
• US rank: #26497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamesport, NY
• City population: 716
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+58.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $790,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Coming Soon $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $497,125 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,711 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.