16561 Timberwolf Trl · New Caney, TX 77357

$284,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Versatile loft
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR OWNERS SUITE
• FLEXIBLE OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• INVITING COVERED PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN SUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $284,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,938.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-624 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Timber Lakes El (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 860 students, 63% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $212,069 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.77%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,938
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: -4.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21718 Southern Valley Ln	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,226 (-0%)	0mo	$324,990	$146	83
16523 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,968 (-12%)	0mo	$242,990	$123	76
16890 Buckwood Trl	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,410 (+8%)	1mo	$361,990	$150	71
20728 Central Concave Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,173 (-3%)	2mo	$297,990	$137	70
16898 Buckwood Trl	0.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (+14%)	0mo	$297,840	$117	68
16221 Bergara Bend Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,039 (-9%)	2mo	$270,990	$133	67
16511 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,968 (-12%)	2mo	$288,990	$147	62
21709 Southern Valley Ln	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,550 (+14%)	1mo	$324,990	$127	59
21726 Piper Betel Rd	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,173 (-3%)	1mo	$299,990	$138	58
14479 Trumpet Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,104 (-6%)	1mo	$318,990	$152	53
21734 Piper Betel Rd	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,042 (-9%)	0mo	$306,990	$150	50
21430 Sacred Grove St	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,956 (-12%)	2mo	$240,000	$123	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-94,798
• Equity at exit: $45,467

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-155,591
• Equity at exit: $26,365

Cash invested: $85,383 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 135 active · 50 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.9 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $284,990 ($139/sqft)
• Median days on market: 128 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,574/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,911

Max offer price $214,643

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-413	-5% $-519	+0% $-624	+5% $-729	+10% $-835
Rent	-10% $-792	-5% $-708	+0% $-624	+5% $-540	+10% $-456
Rate	-1.0pp $-470	-0.5pp $-546	base $-624	+0.5pp $-703	+1.0pp $-783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,234
• Closing costs: $9,148
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	73d	1	0.61mi
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	15d	1	0.63mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$2,170	$1.21	0d	59	1.04mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Timbers Edge Community AssociationAssociation fee $2,300 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Built by Lennar HomesSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick exteriorComposition roofYear built 2026
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14 x 12)Bedroom on second floor (10 x 11)Bedroom on second floor (11 x 11)Bedroom on second floor (11 x 12)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with full bathSeparate showerTub/shower combinationLoft
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $284,990 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $284,990 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $284,990 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $284,990 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $284,990 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $284,990 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $284,990 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $284,990 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $284,990 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $284,990 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $284,990 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $284,990 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $284,990 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $284,990 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $284,990 Active 47 DOM

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $284,990 Active 45 DOM

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $284,990 Active 44 DOM

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $284,990 Active 43 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $284,990 Active 42 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $284,990 Active 41 DOM

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

21. 2026-07-14
    price $284,990 Active 40 DOM

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $288,990 Active 40 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $288,990 Active 39 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $288,990 Active 38 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $288,990 Active 37 DOM

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

26. 2026-07-10
    price $288,990 Active 36 DOM

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

27. 2026-07-09
    days on market $294,990 Active 36 DOM
28. 2026-07-07
    days on market $294,990 Active 34 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $294,990 Active 33 DOM
30. 2026-07-06
    days on market $294,990 Active 32 DOM
31. 2026-07-05
    days on market $294,990 Active 31 DOM
32. 2026-07-03
    days on market $294,990 Active 30 DOM
33. 2026-07-02
    days on market $294,990 Active 29 DOM
34. 2026-07-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 28 DOM
35. 2026-06-30
    days on market $294,990 Active 27 DOM
36. 2026-06-29
    days on market $294,990 Active 26 DOM
37. 2026-06-28
    days on market $294,990 Active 25 DOM
38. 2026-06-27
    days on market $294,990 Active 24 DOM
39. 2026-06-26
    days on market $294,990 Active 23 DOM
40. 2026-06-24
    days on market $294,990 Active 21 DOM
41. 2026-06-22
    days on market $294,990 Active 19 DOM
42. 2026-06-21
    days on market $294,990 Active 18 DOM
43. 2026-06-18
    days on market $294,990 Active 15 DOM

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

44. 2026-06-17
    pricedays on market $294,990 Active 14 DOM
45. 2026-06-16
    days on market $292,290 Active 13 DOM
46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $292,290 Active 12 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $292,290 Active 10 DOM
48. 2026-06-13
    days on market $292,290 Active 9 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $292,290 Active 6 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $292,290 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,081
• − Property taxes: −$4,574
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,036
• − Management: −$2,036
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$8,871
• Taxable loss: −$12,978
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,115
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new two-story home offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a spacious open-concept floorplan. The exterior is in good condition, and the property is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Timber Lakes El F TX #3,311/4,322 Nat'l #31,832/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Timbers Edge Community AssociationAssociation fee $2,300 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Built by Lennar HomesSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick exteriorComposition roofYear built 2026
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14 x 12)Bedroom on second floor (10 x 11)Bedroom on second floor (11 x 11)Bedroom on second floor (11 x 12)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with full bathSeparate showerTub/shower combinationLoft
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-20 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-07-18 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-07-14 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-13 Price Changed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2026-07-10 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-09 Price Changed $288,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $294,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $292,290 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $292,290 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $296,840 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $301,390 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $305,890 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $310,390 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Listed $314,990 Zillow