1372 Chestnut St · Alden, NY 14001

$57,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 2000 Good condition $36/sqft · at area comps Est $56k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1372 Chestnut St. , a very spacious and well-kept home. Solid mechanics, and the roof was just replaced in 2025! It has 3 good-sized bedrooms, each with nice sized closets. Main bedroom has its own bathroom and a bonus room. Newer flooring throughout. Separate laundry room and good-sized storage closet. All appliances are included! Brand new covered front porch to relax on. Don’t miss out on this great opportunity! Taxes are included in Lot Rent- Lot rent includes garbage.

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Roof replaced
• Built 2000

Tags

• ROOF REPLACED
• BONUS ROOM
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• GOOD SIZED STORAGE CLOSET
• BRAND NEW COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $57k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $570 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $57k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#559 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, schools A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alden Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #229 of 590 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $394 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $55,290 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.89%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,996
• List price: $57,000
• Delta: 1.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1341 Village Park Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	17mo	$75,000	$52	72
13578 Holly Lane Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (-6%)	10mo	$65,000	$44	71
1306 Duchess Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	8mo	$47,000	$35	63
1431 Chestnut St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-14%)	22mo	$137,000	$101	51
1327 Village Park Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-14%)	21mo	$55,000	$41	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $27,113
• Equity at exit: $8,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $70,466
• Equity at exit: $4,928

Cash invested: $15,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14001

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$299
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$71 /mo · $855/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $499

Max offer price $57,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $610	-5% $590	+0% $570	+5% $551	+10% $531
Rent	-10% $474	-5% $522	+0% $570	+5% $619	+10% $667
Rate	-1.0pp $599	-0.5pp $585	base $570	+0.5pp $556	+1.0pp $541

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,250
• Closing costs: $1,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Welcome to 1372 Chestnut St. , a very spacious and well-kept home. Solid mechanics, and the roof was just replaced in 2025! It has 3 good-sized bedrooms, each with nice sized closets. Main bedroom has its own bathroom and a bonus room. Newer flooring throughout. Separate laundry room and good-sized storage closet. All appliances are included! Brand new covered front porch to relax on. Don’t miss out on this great opportunity! Taxes are included in Lot Rent- Lot rent includes garbage.

2. 2026-05-12
   price $57,000 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Welcome to 1372 Chestnut St. , a very spacious and well-kept home. Solid mechanics, and the roof was just replaced in 2025! It has 3 good-sized bedrooms, each with nice sized closets. Main bedroom has its own bathroom and a bonus room. Newer flooring throughout. Separate laundry room and good-sized storage closet. All appliances are included! Brand new covered front porch to relax on. Don’t miss out on this great opportunity! Taxes are included in Lot Rent- Lot rent includes garbage.

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $62,000 Active 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Welcome to 1372 Chestnut St. , a very spacious and well-kept home. Solid mechanics, and the roof was just replaced in 2025! It has 3 good-sized bedrooms, each with nice sized closets. Main bedroom has its own bathroom and a bonus room. Newer flooring throughout. Separate laundry room and good-sized storage closet. All appliances are included! Brand new covered front porch to relax on. Don’t miss out on this great opportunity! Taxes are included in Lot Rent- Lot rent includes garbage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,193
• − Property taxes: −$855
• − Insurance: −$285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,172
• − Management: −$1,172
• − Depreciation: −$1,658
• Taxable income: $6,313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,515
• After-tax cash flow: $5,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both New front door — Improves curb appeal and security
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New front door — Improves curb appeal and security ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alden Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602550
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,135
• Composite: 51.77/100
• National rank: #1676
• State rank: #229 of 590 in NY

Livability — Alden

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #559
• US rank: #10069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alden, NY
• City population: 11,312
• Population (ZIP): 9,122

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.68%
• Current HPI: 322.1897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $57,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $62,000 WNYREIS