Grand (Applewood) Plan · Middletown, OH 45044

$102,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,813 sqft · SingleFamily · 323 Days on market

Fair condition $580/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located halfway between Dayton and Cincinnati, just off I-75 at exit 32 (OH-122) at Breiel Boulevard and Lefferson Road, Applewood Pointe is in a quiet suburban neighborhood close to shopping, employment and schools. The community is also the site for Applewood Self Storage, the only facility in the area with 24 hour access for both inside and outside storage for your boat or RV. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, Community Center, and Playground Schools Mayfield Elementary School, Verity Junior High School, and Monroe High School For current prices of homes in Applewood Pointe call our sales office today!

Key facts

• Listed 323 days

🏗️ New construction. The $102,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $242,942.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $103k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-705 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $103k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 4.5% in Middletown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $90,635 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.44%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,942
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3700 Greenwood Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-4%)	2mo	$234,500	$135	67
3746 Lacy Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,975 (+9%)	2mo	$255,000	$129	67
3708 Greenwood Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (-5%)	6mo	$234,500	$137	64
2033 Jackson Ln	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,696 (-6%)	10mo	$270,000	$159	62
3726 Ellis Way	0.35mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,716 (-5%)	10mo	$230,000	$134	59
3605 Burbank Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-7%)	11mo	$215,000	$128	56
2101 Jackson Ln	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,696 (-6%)	18mo	$269,900	$159	54
1605 Lamberton St	0.62mi	4/3.0	1,844 (+2%)	12mo	$329,000	$178	54
1205 Eaton Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,630 (-10%)	2mo	$180,000	$110	53
3605 Greenview Dr	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,734 (-4%)	10mo	$198,000	$114	53
3724 Fiesta Way	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,863 (+3%)	8mo	$229,900	$123	48
1814 Waynebrook Dr	0.43mi	4/1.5	1,608 (-11%)	14mo	$188,750	$117	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-77,145
• Equity at exit: $36,223

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-93,741
• Equity at exit: $21,005

Cash invested: $68,024 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45044

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,644/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$580
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-705

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,859

Max offer price $140,864

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-538	-5% $-621	+0% $-705	+5% $-789	+10% $-873
Rent	-10% $-861	-5% $-783	+0% $-705	+5% $-628	+10% $-550
Rate	-1.0pp $-583	-0.5pp $-644	base $-705	+0.5pp $-768	+1.0pp $-832

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,736
• Closing costs: $7,288
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4373 Bonita Dr Middletown, OH	2.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	1078	$1,450	$1.35	2d	3	0.35mi
3504 Greenwood Dr Middletown, OH	3.0	1.5	1712	$1,831	$1.07	13d	1	0.46mi
11 Redbud Dr Middletown, OH	4.0	3.0	1562	$2,175	$1.39	22d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $580 · $6,960/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $102,995 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $102,995 Active 322 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $102,995 Active 321 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $102,995 Active 320 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $102,995 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $102,995 Active 314 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $102,995 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $102,995 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $102,995 Active 308 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $102,995 Active 307 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $102,995 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $102,995 Active 305 DOM
13. 2025-07-31
    listed $102,995 Active 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Located halfway between Dayton and Cincinnati, just off I-75 at exit 32 (OH-122) at Breiel Boulevard and Lefferson Road, Applewood Pointe is in a quiet suburban neighborhood close to shopping, employment and schools. The community is also the site for Applewood Self Storage, the only facility in the area with 24 hour access for both inside and outside storage for your boat or RV. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, Community Center, and Playground Schools Mayfield Elementary School, Verity Junior High School, and Monroe High School For current prices of homes in Applewood Pointe call our sales office today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,609
• − Property taxes: −$3,644
• − Insurance: −$1,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − HOA: −$6,960
• − Depreciation: −$7,067
• Taxable loss: −$12,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires significant repairs and updates across multiple systems and areas, including kitchens, bathrooms, and exterior. Improvements in these areas would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No photos of kitchen
• Major Bathrooms — No photos of bathrooms
• Major Exterior — No photos of exterior
• Major Flooring — No photos of flooring
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls/paint
• Major Windows — No photos of windows
• Major Foundation/structure — No photos of foundation/structure
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC/mechanicals
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and can increase its value
• Resale Fix windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value
• Resale Upgrade HVAC — A modern HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Resale Improve landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No photos of kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No photos of bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No photos of exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No photos of flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No photos of windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No photos of foundation/structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and can increase its value ↑
• Resale Fix windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value ↑
• Resale Upgrade HVAC — A modern HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Resale Improve landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City
• NCES district ID: 3904440
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,650
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8605
• State rank: #610 of 656 in OH

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6338

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, OH
• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• City population: 96,117
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 56,217
• Household income: $73,732
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.07%
• Current HPI: 219.0479
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-31 Listed $102,995 Zillow