991 Lakeshore Rd · Gumlog, GA 30557

$240,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2015 Est $236k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique Cottage on 2 Interior Lots in well established Lake community apx one block from boat ramp. No HOA's This home has Hardwood floors through out. Vaulted ceilings are solid wood. Open concept Living dining Kitchen area with fire place. New plumbing, New septic, New invertor heat and air unit. Optional community association available for use of Clubhouse and boat ramps (fee required) Also boat slip rental upon availability. Plenty of space to put a shelter for a boat.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New septic
• Lake access

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• UNIQUE BUNGALOW LAKE COTTAGE
• VAULTED PINE CEILINGS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW SEPTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (40.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (40.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.7% in Gumlog — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Franklin County (rural): math 38% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #61 of 174 in GA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lavonia Elementary School (math 31% / reading 28%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 549 students, 68% FRL); Franklin County Middle School (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #206 of 470 statewide, top 45%, 826 students, 60% FRL); Franklin County High School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #93 of 424 statewide, top 23%, 1,048 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $240k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,165 (40.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.31%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,080
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Hillshore Ct	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+6%)	1mo	$250,000	$227	59
121 Lake View Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-8%)	14mo	$205,000	$214	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $108,132
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $335,949
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30557

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,432 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,507/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $177,614

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-217	-5% $-285	+0% $-353	+5% $-421	+10% $-489
Rent	-10% $-466	-5% $-410	+0% $-353	+5% $-297	+10% $-240
Rate	-1.0pp $-232	-0.5pp $-292	base $-353	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-479

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $240,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   remarks 695-char remark
6. 2026-06-09
   listed $240,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,507 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,208 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$701/yr (+$58/mo · 46.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,507
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$8,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,088
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 1302250
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,985
• Composite: 30.28/100
• National rank: #6281
• State rank: #61 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gumlog

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #11633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gumlog, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,905

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,625 people
• By 2030: 22,725 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 22,806 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 22,713 · +0.4%
• By 2075: 22,514 · -0.5%
• By 2100: 20,768 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 8% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.6% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+69.5 2016: R+68.6 2012: R+59.5 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.48%
• Current HPI: 350.6536
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+175.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $240,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-01-02 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2023-12-06 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2023-11-30 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2023-09-28 Listed $240,000 GAMLS
• 2019-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-11 Sold (MLS) $117,000 GAMLS
• 2019-07-23 Listed $124,900 GAMLS
• 2017-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,507 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.