4221 NW 15th St · Oklahoma City, OK 73107

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1949 6,499 sqft lot $114/sqft · 10% below area Est $177k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bed, 2-bath ranch offering approximately 1,400 sq ft in a convenient central Oklahoma City location. Functional layout with true primary suite, updated kitchen with granite countertops (2019), and abundant natural light. Solid home with light cosmetic upside. Detached 2-car garage with easy access to major highways, shopping, dining, and downtown OKC. Vacant and ready for new ownership. Seller is an inactive licensed real estate professional. Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1949

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-864/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• Oklahoma City (urban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #254 of 270 in OK (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $160k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,656 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,286
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -9.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1818 N Shawnee Ave	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,445 (+3%)	3mo	$150,000	$104	76
4305 NW 21st Ter	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,333 (-5%)	0mo	$195,000	$146	68
4301 NW 18th St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-11%)	4mo	$165,000	$132	67
4417 NW Liberty St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-10%)	4mo	$210,000	$166	65
4401 NW 16th Pl	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,223 (-13%)	2mo	$187,000	$153	63
1730 N Meridian Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,219 (-13%)	1mo	$150,000	$123	57
3904 NW 17th St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,266 (-10%)	4mo	$160,000	$126	56
3725 NW 18th St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,326 (-6%)	0mo	$175,000	$132	51
3721 NW 17th St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,249 (-11%)	2mo	$189,900	$152	50
2609 N Geraldine Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+10%)	2mo	$174,000	$113	49
4033 NW 22nd St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,202 (-15%)	3mo	$199,000	$166	43
910 N Warren Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (+14%)	4mo	$240,000	$150	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-24,997
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,996
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73107

• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,227 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,630/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,318

Max offer price $147,174

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4304 NW 11th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	1.5	1147	$1,200	$1.05	2d	1	0.34mi
1307 N Meridian Ave Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$925	$0.74	2d	6	0.41mi
3929 NW 18th St Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	1.5	1347	$1,200	$0.89	2d	1	0.41mi
1309 N Meridian Ave Oklahoma City, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$975	$1.05	2d	4	0.44mi
4220 NW 10th St Unit 11F Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,055	$0.96	24d	1	0.45mi
3733 NW 15th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	1.0	995	$1,150	$1.16	24d	1	0.57mi
3800 NW 19th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,250	$1.16	24d	1	0.59mi
2221 N Meridian Ave Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.5	1200	$995	$0.83	3d	1	0.61mi
1041 N Tabor Ave Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	24d	1	0.66mi
3905 NW 23rd St Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.5	1044	$1,100	$1.05	17d	1	0.71mi
800 N Meridian Ave Oklahoma City, OK	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$999	$1.09	24d	1	0.72mi
3629 NW 18th St Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	2.0	1176	$1,800	$1.53	44d	1	0.72mi
3625 NW 18th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,500	$1.44	44d	1	0.73mi
3609 NW 13th St Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.5	1042	$1,250	$1.20	2d	1	0.76mi
4746 NW 23rd St Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0	975	$725	$0.74	24d	1	0.81mi
4746 NW 23rd St Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0	975	$815	$0.84	3d	1	0.81mi
2626 N Meridian Ave Oklahoma City, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$845	$0.81	3d	1	0.82mi
4750 NW 23rd St Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0	975	$830	$0.85	24d	1	0.84mi
4750 NW 23rd St Unit 158 Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0	975	$785	$0.81	24d	1	0.86mi
3829 NW 26th St Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0	895	$1,125	$1.26	2d	1	0.89mi
3701 NW 24th St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,299	$0.93	44d	1	0.92mi
1233 1/2 N Grand Blvd Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0	950	$925	$0.97	24d	1	0.92mi
4036 NW 30th Ter Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,500	$0.90	24d	1	1.01mi
1616 Julie Pl Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,535	$0.96	24d	1	1.18mi
1912 N Moulton Ct Unit 1912 Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,400	$1.07	24d	1	1.21mi
4425 NW 31st St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	1.5	1222	$1,500	$1.23	24d	1	1.22mi
5700 NW 23rd St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,050	$0.89	24d	1	1.29mi
3175 N Portland Ave Oklahoma City, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	809	$960	$1.19	16d	3	1.30mi
3175 N Portland Ave Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	2.0	918	$960	$1.05	24d	1	1.30mi
3912 NW 32nd St Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0	894	$1,099	$1.23	44d	1	1.33mi
3929 NW 32nd St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	44d	1	1.34mi
3145 NW 21st St Oklahoma City, OK	3.0	2.0	1728	$1,600	$0.93	2d	1	1.36mi
1414 N Drexel Blvd Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0	1604	$1,100	$0.69	2d	1	1.43mi
3411 Cameron Ct Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	2.0	1409	$1,300	$0.92	44d	1	1.44mi
3411 Cameron Ct Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	2.0	1409	$1,300	$0.92	24d	1	1.44mi
4396 NW 36th St Oklahoma City, OK	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,349	$1.59	2d	9	1.44mi
3228 NW 27th St Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,195	$1.10	12d	1	1.45mi
2112 N Drexel Blvd Oklahoma City, OK	4.0	2.0	1443	$1,695	$1.17	44d	1	1.47mi
3024 NW 14th St Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0	924	$895	$0.97	16d	1	1.47mi
3109 NW 23rd St Oklahoma City, OK	2.0	1.0	1006	$925	$0.92	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 481-char remark

   Show marketing remark (481 chars)

   3-bed, 2-bath ranch offering approximately 1,400 sq ft in a convenient central Oklahoma City location. Functional layout with true primary suite, updated kitchen with granite countertops (2019), and abundant natural light. Solid home with light cosmetic upside. Detached 2-car garage with easy access to major highways, shopping, dining, and downtown OKC. Vacant and ready for new ownership. Seller is an inactive licensed real estate professional. Buyer to verify all information.

2. 2026-04-23
   price $159,900 481-char remark

   Show marketing remark (481 chars)

   3-bed, 2-bath ranch offering approximately 1,400 sq ft in a convenient central Oklahoma City location. Functional layout with true primary suite, updated kitchen with granite countertops (2019), and abundant natural light. Solid home with light cosmetic upside. Detached 2-car garage with easy access to major highways, shopping, dining, and downtown OKC. Vacant and ready for new ownership. Seller is an inactive licensed real estate professional. Buyer to verify all information.

3. 2026-04-02
   listed $164,900 Active 481-char remark

   Show marketing remark (481 chars)

   3-bed, 2-bath ranch offering approximately 1,400 sq ft in a convenient central Oklahoma City location. Functional layout with true primary suite, updated kitchen with granite countertops (2019), and abundant natural light. Solid home with light cosmetic upside. Detached 2-car garage with easy access to major highways, shopping, dining, and downtown OKC. Vacant and ready for new ownership. Seller is an inactive licensed real estate professional. Buyer to verify all information.

4. 2026-03-31
   historical
5. 2026-03-24
   price $164,900
6. 2026-01-05
   listed $169,900 Active
7. 2025-12-31
   historical
8. 2025-11-14
   listed $169,900 Active
9. 2019-10-31
   soldstatus $60,500
10. 1990-02-27
    soldstatus $39,000
11. 1987-12-01
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,630 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,630 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,630
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$882
• After-tax cash flow: $17/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oklahoma City
• NCES district ID: 4022770
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $35,606
• Composite: 7.0/100
• National rank: #9970
• State rank: #254 of 270 in OK

Livability — Oklahoma City

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1635

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oklahoma City, OK
• County: Oklahoma County · 771,644 people
• City population: 498,656
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,791
• Household income: $56,873
• Rent vs Own: 45.5% rent · 54.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1210.0

Population outlook (Oklahoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 911,875 people
• By 2030: 982,413 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,130,468 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 1,288,422 · +41.3%
• By 2075: 1,711,482 · +87.7%
• By 2100: 2,088,448 · +129.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 13% Native American 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 30% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oklahoma

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.1pp toward D · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -245.03%
• Current HPI: 274.7844
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.29%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+356.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $159,900 MLSOK
• 2026-04-02 Listed $164,900 MLSOK
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $164,900 MLSOK
• 2026-01-05 Listed $169,900 MLSOK
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2025-11-14 Listed $169,900 MLSOK
• 2019-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 1990-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1987-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,630 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.