209 Lone Star Rd · Trinidad, TX 75163

$89,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,898 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1963 $47/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Updated three bedroom, two bath home on quite street. Kitchen has new cabinets and granite counters. Large primary bath has jetted tub. Walls are painted a soft pleasing green. Enclosed garage could be third bedroom or den area. Back yard features a large deck and storage building. Home features a metal roof. Property needs some repairs but for the price this is a great buy. Property is in Trinidad school district.

Key facts

• Built 1963
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single family detached residence; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Aluminum or metal roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Chain link fencing; Storage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 2.5% in Trinidad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,274 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Trinidad ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #684 of 1,141 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $921 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $89k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.61%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,000
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -46.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $42,321
• Equity at exit: $30,543

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $105,976
• Equity at exit: $40,713

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75163

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,583 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $697	-5% $666	+0% $636	+5% $605	+10% $574
Rent	-10% $511	-5% $573	+0% $636	+5% $698	+10% $761
Rate	-1.0pp $680	-0.5pp $658	base $636	+0.5pp $613	+1.0pp $589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on marketlisting id $89,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-05-06
   price $99,000 420-char remark
5. 2026-04-10
   price $115,000 420-char remark
6. 2026-03-11
   price $125,000 420-char remark
7. 2026-01-29
   listed $135,000 Active 420-char remark
8. 2025-10-01
   listed $185,000 Active
9. 2025-09-30
   historical
10. 2025-09-05
    price $185,000
11. 2025-05-08
    price $205,000
12. 2025-03-14
    price $210,000
13. 2025-02-18
    listed $215,000 Active
14. 2023-01-11
    soldstatus
15. 2023-01-10
    soldstatus Closed
16. 2022-12-16
    status Pending
17. 2022-11-23
    price $190,000
18. 2022-11-04
    price $196,999
19. 2022-09-28
    listed $199,999 Active
20. 2022-07-05
    soldstatus
21. 2011-08-04
    soldstatus
22. 1999-02-03
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $6,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,585
• After-tax cash flow: $6,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinidad ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843170
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,339
• Composite: 37.29/100
• National rank: #8962
• State rank: #684 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Trinidad

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1274
• US rank: #22143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trinidad, TX
• City population: 2,569
• Population (ZIP): 2,569

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 1% European 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Arabic 10% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.03%
• Current HPI: 211.6125
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+256.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $89,000 GTAR
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $99,000 PAOR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $115,000 PAOR
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $125,000 PAOR
• 2026-01-29 Listed $135,000 PAOR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-18 Listed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-12-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-11-23 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2022-11-04 Price Changed $196,999 NTREIS
• 2022-09-28 Listed $199,999 NTREIS
• 2022-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,452 · +18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.